強(qiáng)美元下特朗普如何削減貿(mào)易逆差？

Donald Trump railed against the effects of an overly strong dollar during the election campaign, warning about the damage it did to US companies’ competitiveness. Unfortunately for the president-elect, his own victory on November 8 has proven to be a catalyst for an even more expensive US currency — in part because of stimulus plans Mr Trump himself is pursuing.

唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)在競(jìng)選期間曾抱怨美元過(guò)分強(qiáng)勢(shì)的影響，并警告這對(duì)美國(guó)企業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力造成損害。不幸的是，他在11月8日的勝選已經(jīng)成為美元進(jìn)一步走強(qiáng)的催化劑——這部分緣于他打算實(shí)施的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃。

America’s growing strong dollar conundrum poses a threat to Mr Trump’s vows to slash the trade deficit. Some leading analysts fear the elevated currency could prompt the incoming administration to lash out with protectionist measures as it attempts to prove it is fighting for US exporters’ interests, with China the likely focal point of early clashes.

美國(guó)日益突出的強(qiáng)勢(shì)美元難題對(duì)特朗普誓言大幅削減貿(mào)易逆差造成威脅。一些知名分析人士擔(dān)心，美元升值或?qū)?dǎo)致下屆政府大量祭出保護(hù)主義措施，因?yàn)樾抡畬⒘D證明自己在為美國(guó)出口商爭(zhēng)取利益，而中國(guó)極有可能成為早期沖突的焦點(diǎn)。

“It looks like a slow motion train wreck to me,” said David Dollar, a former US Treasury official in China who is now at Brookings, the think-tank. The Trump plans for tax cuts and infrastructure spending were likely to help drive up both interest rates and the dollar and cause the US trade deficit to continue widening, he said. “I’m not sure it’s rational to set reducing the US trade deficit as an objective. But if you do then this policy package does not seem to get us to a more balanced trade situation.”

美國(guó)財(cái)政部前駐華官員、現(xiàn)供職于智庫(kù)布魯金斯學(xué)會(huì)(Brookings Institution)的杜大偉(David Dollar)表示：“我覺(jué)得這就像一場(chǎng)慢鏡頭的火車(chē)事故。”他說(shuō)，特朗普的減稅及基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施支出計(jì)劃可能幫助推高利率和美元，使美國(guó)的貿(mào)易逆差繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大。“我不確定把減少美國(guó)貿(mào)易逆差作為目標(biāo)是否合理。但是如果這樣做，這種政策組合似乎不會(huì)給我們帶來(lái)更平衡的貿(mào)易狀況。”

Since the election the trade-weighted dollar is up by about 3.3 per cent. With the incoming administration advocating policies that would boost the budget deficit, something that could prompt the US Federal Reserve to accelerate its rate-lifting plans, analysts including William Cline, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, see further currency gains ahead.

自此次大選開(kāi)始以來(lái)，美元加權(quán)匯率上升了約3.3%。由于即將上臺(tái)的新政府提倡可能擴(kuò)大預(yù)算赤字的政策，很可能促使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)加快其加息計(jì)劃，包括彼得森國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)高級(jí)研究員威廉•克萊恩(William Cline)在內(nèi)的分析人士認(rèn)為，未來(lái)美元匯率將進(jìn)一步升高。

He estimates that as of mid-November the dollar was overvalued by around 11 per cent, and argues that fiscal stimulus and associated interest rate increases risk yet further increases in the dollar. The US current account deficit is on track to widen from 2.7 per cent of gross domestic product this year to nearly 4 per cent by 2021.

他估計(jì)，截至11月中旬，美元被高估了約11%，并稱(chēng)財(cái)政刺激伴隨加息可能使美元進(jìn)一步升值。美國(guó)經(jīng)常賬戶(hù)赤字預(yù)計(jì)將從今年占國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)2.7%擴(kuò)大到2021年的近4%。

Pledges to tackle the trade deficit were a central feature of Mr Trump’s campaign: a September report by advisers Peter Navarro and Wilbur Ross, his nominee to be commerce secretary, claimed that eliminating the deficit would lead to a surge in growth — a notion heavily criticised by economists. Mr Trump warned of the damage from a high exchange rate: “It sounds good to say ‘we have a strong dollar’. But that’s about where it stops,” he said.

承諾解決貿(mào)易逆差是特朗普競(jìng)選綱領(lǐng)中的一個(gè)要點(diǎn)：他的兩位顧問(wèn)彼得•納瓦羅(Peter Navarro)和威爾伯•羅斯(Wilbur Ross)——他已提名后者當(dāng)商務(wù)部長(zhǎng)——在9月份的一份報(bào)告中指出，消除逆差將使增長(zhǎng)大幅加快——這個(gè)觀(guān)點(diǎn)遭到經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家詬病。特朗普警告匯率處于高位所造成的損失，他說(shuō)：“‘我們有強(qiáng)勢(shì)美元’這句話(huà)聽(tīng)起來(lái)不錯(cuò)，但問(wèn)題在于它止步于何處。”

Some officials fear that with his stimulus and the surging dollar Mr Trump could be creating swings in exchange rates that would eventually lead him to blame trading partners such as China or the EU, heightening the temptation to resort to protectionist policies.

有些官員擔(dān)心在他的刺激政策和美元飆升作用下，特朗普可能造成匯率波動(dòng)，這最終可能導(dǎo)致他怪罪中國(guó)或歐盟等貿(mào)易伙伴，使他更想采取保護(hù)主義政策。

The US can weather currency strength much better than many other major economies because of the relatively small role exports play in the economy. But that does not change the fact that a strong dollar would make Mr Trump’s stated goal of attracting manufacturing jobs back to the US more difficult and hurt US competitiveness.

美國(guó)對(duì)本幣強(qiáng)勢(shì)的耐受度遠(yuǎn)超其他許多主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體，因?yàn)槌隹谠谄浣?jīng)濟(jì)中所占分量相對(duì)較小。但這改變不了如下事實(shí)，強(qiáng)勢(shì)美元將令特朗普提出的吸引制造業(yè)工作回歸美國(guó)的目標(biāo)更難實(shí)現(xiàn)，且會(huì)損害美國(guó)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。

“The main concern that many people should be focusing on is that you could have the beginning of a trade war with the surge in the dollar,” said a senior European trade official.

歐洲一名資深貿(mào)易官員表示：“許多人應(yīng)關(guān)注的主要問(wèn)題是，美元升值可能是貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的開(kāi)端。”

Relations with China provide an early test. Having said he will brand the country a currency manipulator soon after taking office, Mr Trump this month accused China of hurting the US with a “devaluation”.

對(duì)華關(guān)系將較早經(jīng)受考驗(yàn)。特朗普曾表示上任后將立即把中國(guó)歸為貨幣操縱者，本月他指責(zé)中國(guó)用“貶值”來(lái)傷害美國(guó)。

Yet while the renminbi has depreciated against the dollar since earlier this year, the Chinese authorities have recently been intervening to prevent even steeper declines in the currency.

然而，雖然人民幣兌美元匯率自今年年初以來(lái)持續(xù)貶值，但中國(guó)當(dāng)局近來(lái)一直在干預(yù)阻止人民幣更大幅貶值。

Mr Trump has a number of options if he wants to go after China. The current law would call for intensified dialogue with China — or negotiations — should the administration find Beijing to be a currency manipulator. If that did not lead anywhere it would call for possible sanctions, including the exclusion of Chinese companies from government procurement contracts, something that would have negligible impact on China.

特朗普如果想對(duì)付中國(guó)，他有很多選擇。美國(guó)政府若認(rèn)為北京是貨幣操縱者，按照現(xiàn)行法律，其應(yīng)加強(qiáng)與中國(guó)的對(duì)話(huà)，或者說(shuō)談判。如果對(duì)話(huà)沒(méi)有任何效果，就輪到采取可能的制裁措施，包括將中國(guó)企業(yè)排除在政府采購(gòu)合同之外，這對(duì)中國(guó)的影響可以忽略不計(jì)。

Another response could be to declare a balance of payments emergency and invoke a 1974 law that would allow the president to unilaterally impose tariffs up to 15 per cent or other restrictions on Chinese goods for up to 150 days.

另一種對(duì)策是宣布美國(guó)國(guó)際收支進(jìn)入緊急狀態(tài)，并援引一項(xiàng)1974年的法律，該法規(guī)允許美國(guó)總統(tǒng)單方面對(duì)中國(guó)貨物加征最高達(dá)15%的關(guān)稅或施加其他限制，有效期最長(zhǎng)150天。