中國(guó)正在塑造全球科技的未來(lái)

At the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas last week there were so many exhibitors from China — a third of the 4,500 total — some delegates joked that CES now stands for “China Electronics Show”.

上周在拉斯維加斯舉辦的“消費(fèi)電子展”(Consumer Electronics Show，簡(jiǎn)稱CES)上有很多來(lái)自中國(guó)的參展商——總數(shù)4500家中占了三分之一——一些代表開(kāi)玩笑說(shuō)，CES現(xiàn)在成了“中國(guó)電子展”(China Electronics Show)的縮寫(xiě)了。

Through its upstream position in the supply chain, the country has a long-established role in global tech. But it is no longer a mere supplier of components or assembler of the devices on display at shows like CES. Chinese tech companies are increasingly winning with their own products. Shenzhen-based DJI is the dominant global producer of drones. GoPro, which relied on contract manufacturers in China, has just grounded its last drone model, the unfortunately named Karma.

由于其在供應(yīng)鏈上游的地位，中國(guó)在全球科技領(lǐng)域中的角色早就根深蒂固。但在CES等展覽上，中國(guó)已不再只是參展產(chǎn)品零部件的供應(yīng)商或設(shè)備的組裝者。中國(guó)的科技企業(yè)正日益憑借自身的產(chǎn)品取勝。深圳大疆創(chuàng)新科技有限公司(DJI)是全球最大的無(wú)人機(jī)制造商。依賴中國(guó)代工制造商的GoPro最近決定停止銷售其最新款無(wú)人機(jī)——名字不太吉利的Karma(含有因果報(bào)應(yīng)的意思——譯者注)。

Yet the value in tech these days is increasingly in services and content, not devices themselves. Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon have a combined market value of $2.8tn, far exceeding any pure hardware seller.

然而，如今科技的價(jià)值越來(lái)越多地體現(xiàn)在服務(wù)和內(nèi)容上，而不是設(shè)備本身。谷歌(Google)、蘋果(Apple)、Facebook及亞馬遜(Amazon)的合計(jì)市值為2.8萬(wàn)億美元，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)任何純硬件銷售商。

Here, too, China is catching up. Chinese internet leaders Tencent and Alibaba have a combined valuation of $1tn. Add in another $200bn or so for Baidu, JD.com and Netease plus other listed or unlisted companies, such as Toutiao, Meituan and Didi, and the scale of the Chinese market becomes apparent. Trends emerging in China are beginning to shape the future of the global tech landscape. To its dominant role in the supply chain we can now add a “demand chain” aspect to the country.

在服務(wù)和內(nèi)容方面，中國(guó)也在迎頭趕上。中國(guó)的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)巨頭騰訊(Tencent)與阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的估值合計(jì)有1萬(wàn)億美元。再加上百度(Baidu)、京東(JD.com)和網(wǎng)易(Netease)以及其他上市或非上市的公司，包括頭條(Toutiao)、美團(tuán)(Meituan)和滴滴(Didi)等，這些企業(yè)的估值加起來(lái)也有2000億美元左右，中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的規(guī)模是顯而易見(jiàn)的。中國(guó)正在興起的一些趨勢(shì)正開(kāi)始塑造未來(lái)全球科技的格局。除了其在供應(yīng)鏈上的主導(dǎo)地位，我們?nèi)缃褚残枰獜?ldquo;需求鏈”方面來(lái)看待這個(gè)國(guó)家。

US tech titans are already global companies. But Chinese companies are just beginning to look abroad. The week before last week, ride-sharing business Didi acquired 99 in Brazil, crimping fellow group Uber’s prospects in the country. Both Alibaba and Tencent are investing significant sums in India, ramping up pressure on Amazon.

美國(guó)科技巨頭都已經(jīng)是全球性企業(yè)了。但中國(guó)的企業(yè)才剛剛開(kāi)始將目光投向海外。上上周，共享出行企業(yè)滴滴收購(gòu)了巴西的網(wǎng)約車企業(yè)99，勢(shì)必影響競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手優(yōu)步(Uber)在該國(guó)的發(fā)展前景。阿里巴巴和騰訊都在印度大舉投資，給亞馬遜造成越來(lái)越大的壓力。

Not that China itself is short of growth. Massive investments in mobile broadband and a highly competitive handset market means that nearly all of China’s approximately 750m internet users use smartphones. Payments via QR codes, led by Tencent’s WeChat and Alibaba’s Alipay, are making cash obsolete. Dockless bikes line the streets of Chinese cities. The country’s physical infrastructure — roads, high-speed trains and airports — are facilitating as big a boost to consumption as President Eisenhower’s roll out of the Interstate Highway System in the US in the 1950s.

并不是說(shuō)中國(guó)本身缺乏增長(zhǎng)。由于在移動(dòng)寬帶上的巨額投資和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)激烈的手機(jī)市場(chǎng)，中國(guó)約7.5億的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)用戶幾乎都在使用智能手機(jī)。由騰訊微信(WeChat)及阿里巴巴支付寶(Alipay)引領(lǐng)的二維碼支付讓現(xiàn)金顯得過(guò)時(shí)。無(wú)樁自行車遍布中國(guó)城市街頭。中國(guó)的實(shí)體基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施——公路、高鐵及機(jī)場(chǎng)——對(duì)消費(fèi)的極大提振，與20世紀(jì)50年代艾森豪威爾總統(tǒng)在美國(guó)推動(dòng)建設(shè)州際高速公路網(wǎng)絡(luò)所起的作用旗鼓相當(dāng)。

I have lived in Beijing for more than 20 years, yet only in the past year have I felt on returning to London or Silicon Valley that I’m going backwards in time. For urban residents, China is increasingly a study in frictionless living. Hopping on a bike, ordering a meal from a huge range of restaurants, paying for utilities, transferring money to friends — all can be done at the touch of a button. Internet services in the west offer increasing convenience no doubt — but nothing beats the experience in China.

我在北京住了20多年，然而過(guò)去一年中我才感到仿佛回到了我不時(shí)回去的倫敦或硅谷。對(duì)于城市居民來(lái)說(shuō)，中國(guó)的無(wú)摩擦生活方式日益值得考察。騎上一輛單車，從一眾餐館中訂餐，繳納水電費(fèi)，轉(zhuǎn)賬給朋友——只要點(diǎn)擊一下按鈕，這一切都可以完成。毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，西方的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)服務(wù)提供了越來(lái)越多的便利——但沒(méi)什么比得上在中國(guó)獲得的體驗(yàn)。

Why such rapid growth? Intense competition between the country’s internet companies is one reason. The rapid embrace by Chinese consumers of the new is another: few cling to a past where shops were crowded, taxis hard to hail, banks a waiting room hell. Convenience is the new religion in China.

為什么中國(guó)的發(fā)展如此迅速?一來(lái)是由于中國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)之間競(jìng)爭(zhēng)激烈。二來(lái)是由于中國(guó)消費(fèi)者能迅速接受新事物：很少有人執(zhí)著過(guò)去的生活，那時(shí)的商店人滿為患，在街上很難打到出租車，銀行里等待辦理業(yè)務(wù)的客戶人山人海。如今在中國(guó)，便利成了人們所崇尚的新信條。

Critics contend that Chinese internet companies are merely hothouse flowers, thriving only as a result of the Great Firewall of China (GFC) acting as a greenhouse. Google, Facebook, Twitter and others are indeed blocked, making China’s modernity seem hollow at times.

評(píng)論家們認(rèn)為中國(guó)的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司不過(guò)是溫室里的花朵，它們得以興旺發(fā)展僅僅是因?yàn)橛兄袊?guó)“防火長(zhǎng)城”(Great Firewall of China)這座“溫室”的庇佑。谷歌、Facebook、Twitter等海外互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)都被封鎖了，這令中國(guó)的現(xiàn)代化有時(shí)顯得很空洞。

Would tearing down the wall make any difference to the prospects for US internet companies? For Google, it could. Savvy internet users in China use virtual private networks (VPNs) to access its services; not so much for Facebook, however, as Tencent’s WeChat has essentially removed the need. Amazon is a bit player in China. By contrast, Apple has been hugely successful, its integrated hardware/content model generating billions of dollars a year.

那么拆除這堵墻會(huì)對(duì)美國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司的前景產(chǎn)生影響嗎?對(duì)谷歌來(lái)說(shuō)會(huì)。中國(guó)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)達(dá)人使用虛擬專用網(wǎng)絡(luò)(VPN)訪問(wèn)谷歌;然而，對(duì)Facebook來(lái)說(shuō)影響不會(huì)多大，因?yàn)轵v訊的微信基本上已使其變得沒(méi)有必要。亞馬遜在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)是個(gè)小玩家。相比之下，蘋果取得了巨大的成功，其將硬件與內(nèi)容相融合的模式每年為蘋果賺大量的錢。

In Washington, the drumbeat of protectionism is getting louder, blocking Huawei from selling phones to AT&T and Alibaba-affiliate Ant Financial from buying money transfer company MoneyGram. Security concerns are cited. Both governments have been involved in skulduggery in recent years to gather each other’s secrets, not to mention China’s targeting of corporate intellectual property in the US.

在華盛頓，保護(hù)主義的呼聲越來(lái)越高，美國(guó)已禁止華為(Huawei)為AT&T供應(yīng)手機(jī)，并否決了阿里巴巴的金融關(guān)聯(lián)企業(yè)螞蟻金服(Ant Financial)收購(gòu)美國(guó)匯款公司速匯金(MoneyGram)的交易。理由是出于安全考慮。近年來(lái)，中美兩國(guó)政府為收集對(duì)方機(jī)密均不惜使出欺詐手段，更不用說(shuō)中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)企業(yè)知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)的覬覦了。

Erecting barriers to trade and investment is a risky move for the US. Chinese companies can help make technology more affordable in America, as it slips down the league of internet speeds and affordability. US tech companies need China’s scale to help make and deploy emerging technologies at home, as the recent deal between Facebook and Xiaomi for Oculus VR headsets shows.

對(duì)美國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)，設(shè)置貿(mào)易和投資壁壘是一項(xiàng)危險(xiǎn)的舉措。美國(guó)在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)速度和資費(fèi)方面的排名下滑，中國(guó)企業(yè)可以幫助提高技術(shù)在美國(guó)的可負(fù)擔(dān)性。美國(guó)科技公司需要中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的規(guī)模來(lái)幫助將國(guó)內(nèi)新興的技術(shù)投入生產(chǎn)和應(yīng)用，正如最近Facebook就與小米聯(lián)手推出了Oculus VR頭顯設(shè)備。

As both countries look to artificial intelligence, China’s role as a living laboratory is even more important. Silicon Valley companies, including Google, which just announced an AI lab in Beijing, are well aware of this. Whether the US government, which is already restricting visas for qualified researchers, will help or hinder their innovations remains to be seen.

隨著兩國(guó)都開(kāi)始著眼于人工智能的開(kāi)發(fā)，作為“實(shí)驗(yàn)場(chǎng)”，中國(guó)的作用顯得更加重要了。硅谷的企業(yè)清楚地意識(shí)到了這一點(diǎn)，包括剛剛在北京宣布成立人工智能實(shí)驗(yàn)室的谷歌。已在限制對(duì)研究人才發(fā)放簽證的美國(guó)政府將幫助還是阻礙本國(guó)企業(yè)的創(chuàng)新仍有待觀察。

The writer is chairman of BDA China and author of ‘Alibaba — The House That Jack Ma Built’

本文作者是北京博達(dá)克咨詢公司(BDA China)的董事長(zhǎng)，著有《阿里巴巴：馬云的基業(yè)》(Alibaba — The House That Jack Ma Built)一書(shū)。