特朗普是個(gè)什么樣的“天才”？

When Donald Trump described himself as a “very stable genius”, even some of his supporters sniggered. The US president is clearly not a genius in any normal sense of the word. Rex Tillerson, his own secretary of state, is reputed to have described his boss as a “f***ing moron”.

當(dāng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)稱自己是一個(gè)“精神狀態(tài)非常穩(wěn)定的天才”時(shí)，就連他的一些支持者都在竊笑。這位美國(guó)總統(tǒng)顯然不屬于任何通常意義上的天才。他的國(guó)務(wù)卿雷克斯•蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)據(jù)稱曾形容自己的老板是個(gè)“操蛋的白癡”。

But Mr Trump has a legitimate claim to three other kinds of “genius”: political genius, instinctive genius and evil genius. Moral disgust with Mr Trump means that his opponents are reluctant to credit him with any kind of intelligence or success. But that kind of thinking, while understandable, is also dangerous. It is one reason why the president frequently wrongfoots his opponents.

但特朗普有理由稱自己是另外三種類型的“天才”：政治天才、直覺(jué)天才和邪惡天才。對(duì)特朗普的道德厭惡意味著，他的對(duì)手不愿承認(rèn)他有任何智慧或成功之處。這種思維雖然可以理解，但也是危險(xiǎn)的。這是美國(guó)總統(tǒng)經(jīng)常讓對(duì)手措手不及的原因之一。

As Mr Trump pointed out, when making his own immodest claim to “genius”, he achieved something unprecedented in modern American history. He was a complete political outsider who won the presidency on his first attempt. His enemies would point to the current government shutdown to suggest that the president is nonetheless completely unfit to govern. But Trump supporters will respond by pointing to a growing economy, and the passage of the first large-scale tax reform in more than 30 years.

正如特朗普在大言不慚地宣稱自己是“天才”的時(shí)候所指出的，他取得了美國(guó)現(xiàn)代史上前所未有的成就。他以完全的政治局外人身份首次嘗試競(jìng)選總統(tǒng)就得手。他的對(duì)手會(huì)指出，近日的政府停擺表明了這位總統(tǒng)完全不適合執(zhí)政。但作為回應(yīng)，特朗普的支持者會(huì)指出美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)不斷增長(zhǎng)，而且30多年來(lái)首次通過(guò)了大規(guī)模稅改。

Mr Trump campaigned on themes — protectionism, isolationism, opposition to immigration — that the political establishment was convinced were sure-fire losers, and even un-American. His political instincts told him otherwise. Steve Bannon, Mr Trump’s estranged campaign manager, was the man with the grand theories about economics and culture, larded with references to obscure and sinister European philosophers. Mr Trump was guided by an instinct that told him that he could smash taboos and not just fail to pay a price, but actually be rewarded.

當(dāng)初特朗普的競(jìng)選主題是保護(hù)主義、孤立主義和反對(duì)移民，而政壇體制內(nèi)人士確信這些理念必然失敗，甚至是非美國(guó)的。但政治直覺(jué)告訴他其實(shí)不然。與特朗普鬧僵的競(jìng)選經(jīng)理史蒂夫•班農(nóng)(Steve Bannon)在經(jīng)濟(jì)和文化方面有一些宏大的理論，還經(jīng)常援引一些鮮為人知且惡毒的歐洲哲學(xué)家。特朗普的直覺(jué)告訴他，他可以打破禁忌，而且不僅不用付出代價(jià)，實(shí)際上還能得到回報(bào)。

The number of Mr Trump’s offences against truth and decency are too long to remember, let alone list. But they have a common theme. Time and again the mainstream media (of which I am a proud member) would proclaim that he had gone too far this time and that he was surely finished. Time and again, Mr Trump would prove them wrong and come back stronger. The things that failed to kill him politically — in particular racism and misogyny — actually made him stronger.

特朗普罔顧事實(shí)和基本禮儀的事例多到讓人難以記清，更不用說(shuō)一一列舉了。但這些事有一個(gè)共同主題。主流媒體(我是其中自豪的一員)一次又一次地宣稱，他這次做得太過(guò)分了，肯定完蛋了。而特朗普一次又一次地證明他們錯(cuò)了，他愈戰(zhàn)愈強(qiáng)。那些未能在政治上終結(jié)他的東西——尤其是種族主義和貶低女性——實(shí)際上讓他變得更強(qiáng)大。

That is why it is also legitimate to describe Mr Trump as an “evil” genius. He has deliberately used lies and offensive language to stoke up America’s culture wars and racial tensions, confident that he will benefit politically. There is a direct connection between the current row about the president’s complaint about immigration from “shithole countries” and the campaign that launched his political career — the “birther” lie that President Barack Obama was not born in the US.

這就是為什么把特朗普形容為一個(gè)“邪惡”天才也合情合理。他故意用謊言和攻擊性語(yǔ)言來(lái)煽動(dòng)美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)的文化戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)和種族矛盾，相信自己可以在政治上受益。特朗普對(duì)來(lái)自“糞坑國(guó)家”(shithole countries)移民的抱怨所引發(fā)的爭(zhēng)吵，與當(dāng)年啟動(dòng)他政治生涯的“birther”運(yùn)動(dòng)——質(zhì)疑巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)總統(tǒng)并非出生在美國(guó)——可謂一脈相承。

Mr Trump and many of his supporters are tacitly defending the idea of America as a “white country”. The president’s opponents are right to describe this as a racist vision. But they may be wrong in thinking that this is a decisive argument. By the 2040s, the US is predicted to be “majority-minority”. Whites will be still be the largest ethnic group in the country, but they will be less than 50 per cent of the population. By railing against Mexicans, Muslims and Haitians, and calling for more immigration from Norway, Mr Trump is appealing directly to voters who feel angry about that racial and demographic shift. The current government shutdown is also linked to these issues, since it is caused by the president’s refusal to accept an amnesty for illegal immigrants who arrived as children.

特朗普和他的許多支持者在不明說(shuō)的情況下，捍衛(wèi)著美國(guó)作為一個(gè)“白人國(guó)家”的理念。反對(duì)者說(shuō)得沒(méi)錯(cuò)，這一理念是一種種族主義愿景。但如果他們認(rèn)為這是一個(gè)決定性的論點(diǎn)，就可能錯(cuò)了。預(yù)計(jì)到本世紀(jì)40年代，美國(guó)將變成一個(gè)“少數(shù)族裔人口占多數(shù)的國(guó)家”。白人仍將是最大的種族群體，但他們的人數(shù)將不到美國(guó)總?cè)丝诘?0%。通過(guò)攻擊墨西哥人、穆斯林和海地人，同時(shí)呼吁更多來(lái)自挪威的移民，特朗普在直接爭(zhēng)取那些對(duì)種族和人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化感到憤怒的選民。近日的政府停擺也與這些問(wèn)題有關(guān)，因?yàn)槭录钠鹨蚴强偨y(tǒng)拒絕對(duì)那些在兒童時(shí)期被非法帶來(lái)美國(guó)的無(wú)證移民網(wǎng)開(kāi)一面。

It should never be forgotten that a majority of white Americans voted for Mr Trump. Are these voters likely to turn away in disgust now because of the president’s “shithole country” comments? Or are they more likely quietly to agree? The record suggests that Mr Trump knows exactly what he is doing.

永遠(yuǎn)不應(yīng)忘記的是，多數(shù)美國(guó)白人投票支持特朗普。這些選民現(xiàn)在可能會(huì)因?yàn)樗?ldquo;糞坑國(guó)家”言論就出于厭惡而改變立場(chǎng)嗎?還是更有可能默默地表示贊同?記錄似乎表明，特朗普很清楚自己在做什么。

His ideas about race and immigration are nasty — but they are also widely shared, and not just in America. Japan accepted 28 refugees in the whole of 2016, and precisely three in the first half of 2017. It is virtually impossible for non-ethnic Chinese to gain citizenship in the People’s Republic of China, whose citizenship laws make explicit reference to “Chinese blood”. The EU has been split down the middle by the Polish and Hungarian governments’ refusal to accept EU-mandated quotas of refugees. The demand to “take back control” of British borders was fundamental to Britain’s Brexit vote. And the decline in Angela Merkel’s political fortunes in Germany has been closely linked to the chancellor’s decision to open her country’s borders to more than 1m refugees.

雖然他關(guān)于種族和移民的觀念令人討厭——但這些觀念也是廣泛抱有的，而且不僅限于美國(guó)。日本在整個(gè)2016年僅接收了28名難民，而2017年上半年的數(shù)字是3人。在中華人民共和國(guó)，非華裔移民幾乎不可能獲得公民身份，因?yàn)橹袊?guó)的國(guó)籍法明確提及“中國(guó)人的近親屬”。波蘭和匈牙利政府拒絕接受歐盟(EU)規(guī)定的難民配額，致使歐盟在這一問(wèn)題上陷入分裂。要求對(duì)英國(guó)邊境“收回控制權(quán)”是英國(guó)退歐公投通過(guò)的根本原因。德國(guó)總理安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)政治命運(yùn)的下滑，與她向100多萬(wàn)難民開(kāi)放國(guó)門(mén)的決定密切相關(guān)。

No European country has yet elected a Trump figure. But the continent’s politicians are tying themselves in knots trying to combine liberal principles with practical politics. President Emmanuel Macron speaks the language of tolerance, but is actually speeding up deportations of illegal migrants and tightening border controls. And nobody in Ms Merkel’s CDU party is campaigning for the Hungarian government to rip down the border walls that helped to stop the flow of refugees into Germany.

迄今還沒(méi)有歐洲國(guó)家選出一位特朗普式的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人。但歐洲大陸的政客們正糾結(jié)于嘗試將自由主義原則與現(xiàn)實(shí)政治結(jié)合起來(lái)。埃馬紐埃爾•馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)嘴上說(shuō)著寬容，但實(shí)際上正在加速驅(qū)逐非法移民并收緊對(duì)邊境的控制。默克爾所在的基民盟(CDU)黨內(nèi)也沒(méi)人呼吁匈牙利政府拆除幫助阻止難民涌入德國(guó)的邊境墻。

The fears and hatreds that the US president exploits exist well beyond his base. Liberal politicians need to find more effective policies and language to deal with those fears — or the “very stable genius” may continue to outsmart them.

美國(guó)總統(tǒng)利用的恐懼和仇恨，遠(yuǎn)不止存在于他的根基選民群體。自由派政界人士需要找到更有效的政策和話語(yǔ)來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)這些擔(dān)憂，不然的話，“精神狀態(tài)非常穩(wěn)定的天才”可能繼續(xù)智勝他們。

[email protected] 譯者/申凱