特朗普在落實(shí)“美國(guó)優(yōu)先”政策
現(xiàn)在剩下一個(gè)了。除了美國(guó)國(guó)防部長(zhǎng)吉姆•馬蒂斯(Jim Mattis)以外，唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)把敢于同他對(duì)抗的一批人都清除了。特朗普在Twitter上宣布解雇雷克斯•蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)，消除了特朗普反全球主義本能與美國(guó)首席外交官立場(chǎng)之間的分歧。蒂勒森的接替者邁克•蓬佩奧(Mike Pompeo)與特朗普一樣毫無外交思維。蓬佩奧唯特朗普馬首是瞻。特朗普的“美國(guó)優(yōu)先”(America First)外交政策現(xiàn)在更接近成為現(xiàn)實(shí)。
The portents for the world are far-reaching. One of Mr Tillerson’s greatest sins was to call Mr Trump a “moron”. His leaked outburst followed a meeting in which the president had said that the US should multiply its nuclear weapons arsenal tenfold. Mr Tillerson’s derogatory response broke two cardinal rules of working for Mr Trump. The first was to show disloyalty, which Mr Trump cannot abide. Questioning his IQ is taboo. The second was to repeatedly clash with him on the big questions. In practice they amount to the same thing.
對(duì)全世界來說，它產(chǎn)生的預(yù)兆是影響深遠(yuǎn)的。蒂勒森最大的罪之一是將特朗普稱為“白癡”。特朗普在一次會(huì)議上表示美國(guó)應(yīng)該將核武器數(shù)量增加到現(xiàn)在的10倍，之后便傳出蒂勒森罵特朗普是白癡。蒂勒森的不敬違反了為特朗普工作的兩項(xiàng)基本原則。首先是表現(xiàn)出了特朗普不能容忍的不忠。質(zhì)疑他的智商是禁忌。其次是在重大問題上屢次與他發(fā)生沖突。實(shí)際上，這兩條是一回事。
Gary Cohn, who resigned last week as Mr Trump’s economic adviser, also broke both rules. Last summer he told the Financial Times that he disapproved of Mr Trump’s even-handedness on the alt-right’s clash with protesters in Charlottesville. He also argued against Mr Trump’s protectionist instincts — as did Mr Tillerson. HR McMaster, Mr Trump’s national security adviser, is no longer seen as a brake on Mr Trump — and his days are widely rumoured to be numbered.
上周辭去總統(tǒng)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問職務(wù)的加里•科恩(Gary Cohn)也違背了這兩個(gè)原則。去年夏天，他告訴英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》，他不贊成特朗普在夏洛茨維爾另類右翼與抗議者的沖突中對(duì)雙方各打五十大板的做法。他還反對(duì)特朗普的保護(hù)主義本能——蒂勒森也是一樣。特朗普的國(guó)家安全顧問赫伯特•雷蒙德•麥克馬斯特(HR McMaster)不再被視為對(duì)特朗普的制約力量——人們普遍傳言，他在白宮剩下的日子屈指可數(shù)。
In Mr Trump’s world, disloyalty and disagreement eventually blur into one. In Mr Pompeo, Mr Trump has a true loyalist. Whatever Mr Trump wants, he will prosecute. Mr Pompeo has often crossed that line as director of the Central Intelligence Agency — a role that is meant to channel neutral advice rather than policy cheerleading. For all his failings, which were manifold, Mr Tillerson did not mute his disagreements with Mr Trump.
在特朗普的世界里，不忠和分歧最終混為一談。在蓬佩奧這里，特朗普得到一個(gè)真正的忠誠(chéng)者。無論特朗普想要什么，他都會(huì)執(zhí)行。蓬佩奧經(jīng)常越過中央情報(bào)局(CIA)局長(zhǎng)的角色——這個(gè)角色本應(yīng)是溝通中立建議而不是為政策搖旗吶喊。盡管蒂勒森的失敗是多方面的，但他并沒有諱言他與特朗普的分歧。
Chief among these were Mr Trump’s impulses on Russia, Iran and US engagement with the Muslim world. It is no coincidence that Mr Tillerson’s last comment before being fired was to echo the view of the British prime minister, Theresa May, that it was “highly likely” Russia had poisoned a former spy on British soil. (Mr Trump took 24 hours to respond to Mrs May). Whether Mr Tillerson knew he was about to be fired when he said that is beside the point.
其中最主要的分歧是關(guān)于特朗普在俄羅斯、伊朗以及美國(guó)如何與穆斯林世界打交道問題上的沖動(dòng)。并非偶然的是，蒂勒森在被解雇前發(fā)表的最后一條評(píng)論，是呼應(yīng)英國(guó)首相特里薩•梅(Theresa May)認(rèn)為俄羅斯“極有可能”在英國(guó)領(lǐng)土上毒殺了一名前間諜的觀點(diǎn)。(特朗普花了24小時(shí)回應(yīng)梅)。蒂勒森在說這話的時(shí)候是否知道他即將被解雇并不重要。
Mr Trump, who is loath to criticise Vladimir Putin, said he and Mr Tillerson “disagreed on many things”. By contrast, he and Mr Pompeo “have a very similar thought process — I think it is going to go very well”. It is worth stressing that Mrs May implied that Russia had attacked the UK, which could trigger Nato’s article five on collective defence. Mr Tillerson did his best to persuade Mr Trump to support Nato in public. He was not always successful. It is an open question whether Mr Pompeo will even try.
不愿指責(zé)弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)的特朗普表示，他和蒂勒森“在很多事情上意見不同”。相反，他和蓬佩奧“擁有非常相似的思考過程——我認(rèn)為相處會(huì)非常順利”。需要強(qiáng)調(diào)的是，梅暗示俄羅斯攻擊英國(guó)，這可能觸發(fā)北約(Nato)關(guān)于集體防御的第五條款。蒂勒森竭盡全力說服了特朗普在公開場(chǎng)合支持北約。他并非總能成功說服特朗普。蓬佩奧是否會(huì)嘗試這么做都很難說。
Second, Mr Pompeo is a visceral critic of the Iran nuclear deal, which he says should be scrapped. He is of one mind with Mr Trump on this. Mr Tillerson and Mr Mattis have argued that torpedoing the deal would be disastrous. It could lead to Iran’s rapid nuclearisation and war with Saudi Arabia. It would also deepen America’s split with its European allies. The chances that Mr Trump will pull the plug on the deal when it comes up for certification in a few weeks have risen sharply.
第二，蓬佩奧打心眼里反對(duì)伊朗核協(xié)議，他稱應(yīng)該撕毀該協(xié)議。在該問題上，他和特朗普是一條心。蒂勒森和馬蒂斯認(rèn)為，毀掉該協(xié)議將帶來災(zāi)難性后果?？赡軐?dǎo)致伊朗迅速實(shí)現(xiàn)核武器化，并且與沙特阿拉伯開戰(zhàn)。這還會(huì)加深美國(guó)與其歐洲盟友之間的分歧。未來幾周到了特朗普認(rèn)證的時(shí)候，他退出該協(xié)議的可能性大幅增加。
The potential impact on Mr Trump’s planned summit with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un is great. North Korea experts dismiss the chances that Mr Trump could persuade “rocket man” to denuclearise the Korean peninsula — Mr Trump’s explicit aim. If the US pulled out of the Iran deal, Mr Kim would have even less incentive to strike a bargain with Mr Trump. The dangers of a belligerent fallout from a failed Kim Jong Un summit are acute. As CIA chief, Mr Pompeo has spoken publicly about removing Mr Kim.
特朗普計(jì)劃與朝鮮的金正恩(Kim Jong Un)舉行峰會(huì)可能帶來巨大影響。朝鮮問題專家對(duì)特朗普說服這位“狂人”實(shí)現(xiàn)朝鮮半島無核化(特朗普的明確目標(biāo))的可能性不屑一顧。如果美國(guó)退出伊朗核協(xié)議，金正恩就更沒有動(dòng)力與特朗普達(dá)成交易了。美朝峰會(huì)失敗極可能帶來交戰(zhàn)后果。在擔(dān)任中央情報(bào)局局長(zhǎng)時(shí)，蓬佩奧曾公開說起過除掉金正恩。
Finally, there is the Muslim world. Mr Pompeo’s view is in line with the clash of civilisations argument made by Stephen Bannon, Mr Trump’s former chief strategist. The two are friends. Mr Pompeo has frequently spoken the language of holy war between radical Islam and a Christian west. By contrast, Mr Tillerson stuck to the traditional script about Islamist bad actors perverting a noble religion. Where this will lead is ominous for US relations in the Middle East and beyond.
最后，還有穆斯林世界。蓬佩奧的觀點(diǎn)與特朗普前首席戰(zhàn)略顧問史蒂夫•班農(nóng)(Stephen Bannon)關(guān)于文明沖突的觀點(diǎn)一致。他們二人是朋友。蓬佩奧經(jīng)常說起圣戰(zhàn)語言，稱激進(jìn)的伊斯蘭教徒與遵循基督教義的西方之間有一場(chǎng)圣戰(zhàn)。相比之下，蒂勒森堅(jiān)持傳統(tǒng)說法——伊斯蘭教徒中的害群之馬扭曲了崇高的伊斯蘭教。蓬佩奧接替蒂勒森出任美國(guó)國(guó)務(wù)卿，給美國(guó)在中東乃至整個(gè)穆斯林世界的關(guān)系帶來了不祥的征兆。
On Tuesday, Mr Trump said he was now “closer to having the cabinet I want”. Two men stand between Mr Trump and an unfettered presidency. The first is Mr Mattis. His role now assumes even greater importance. The second is Robert Mueller, the special counsel. Their job security is now indistinguishable from US national security.
周二，特朗普稱眼下“接近于組成我想要的內(nèi)閣”?，F(xiàn)在還有兩個(gè)人阻礙特朗普得到不受約束的總統(tǒng)權(quán)力。第一個(gè)是馬蒂斯。如今他的角色甚至顯得更加重要。第二個(gè)是特別檢察官羅伯特•米勒(Robert Mueller)。眼下，他們能否保住自己的職位，直接關(guān)系到美國(guó)的國(guó)家安全。
