市場(chǎng)擔(dān)心中國(guó)以所持美債為武器報(bào)復(fù)鋼鋁關(guān)稅

Donald Trump’s decision this month to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium imports generated plenty of speculation about potential retaliation from trading partners.

唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)本月宣布對(duì)進(jìn)口鋼鐵和鋁征收關(guān)稅，這一決定引發(fā)了關(guān)于貿(mào)易伙伴潛在報(bào)復(fù)的大量猜測(cè)。

For the bond market, investors are keeping a close eye on China’s holdings of US government debt. Beijing is the largest foreign owner of US Treasuries, with holdings of $1.18tn, according to official data.

就債券市場(chǎng)而言，投資者正密切關(guān)注中國(guó)持有的美國(guó)國(guó)債。據(jù)官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示，中國(guó)是美國(guó)國(guó)債最大的外國(guó)所有者，持債規(guī)模達(dá)到1.18萬(wàn)億美元。

China’s holdings have grown rapidly, rising from under $500bn at the end of 2007 to $1.16tn at the end of 2010, and have stayed close to those levels since.

中國(guó)的持債數(shù)量增長(zhǎng)迅速，從2007年底的5000億美元一路增加到2010年底的1.16萬(wàn)億美元，此后一直維持在該水平附近。

“China owns huge amounts of Treasuries,” said RJ Gallo, a senior fund manager at Federated Investors. “The US is not the only seat at the table with some cards in their hands.”

Federated Investors高級(jí)基金經(jīng)理RJ•加洛(RJ Gallo)表示：“中國(guó)持有大量美國(guó)國(guó)債。美國(guó)不是唯一手上有牌的玩家。”

The US government bond market has been a place for Beijing to park the dollars it gathers from selling goods to the US, whose trade deficit in goods with China reached $375bn last year.

美國(guó)國(guó)債市場(chǎng)一直是北京存放在對(duì)美商品出口中得到的美元的地方，去年美國(guó)對(duì)華貿(mào)易逆差達(dá)到3750億美元。

China’s holding are predominantly in Treasuries maturing in more than one year, with only $4.2bn invested in shorter-dated “bills”.

中國(guó)持有的美國(guó)國(guó)債主要是一年期以上的，在更短期的債券上只投入了42億美元。

However, any move by Beijing to use its holdings of Treasuries as a weapon in a trade war would come at a heavy cost, fixed-income analysts and economists say.

不過(guò)，固定收益分析師和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們表示，北京方面將所持美國(guó)國(guó)債當(dāng)作貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)武器的任何舉動(dòng)，都將付出沉重的代價(jià)。

“Retaliation is never a clear choice,” said Seth Carpenter, chief US economist at UBS. “There would be a cost on both sides.”

瑞銀(UBS)首席美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家塞思•卡彭特(Seth Carpenter)說(shuō)：“報(bào)復(fù)從來(lái)不是一個(gè)容易的選擇。雙方都會(huì)付出代價(jià)。”