中美舌戰(zhàn)哥本哈根氣候峰會

中國外交部副部長何亞非在2009年聯(lián)合國氣候峰會期間舉行新聞發(fā)布會。

本周晚些時候，包括美國總統(tǒng)奧巴馬在內(nèi)的全球政要將飛赴丹麥首都哥本哈根出席聯(lián)合國氣候峰會，宣告人類開啟全球環(huán)境合作的新時代。實際上，此次峰會將成為中美經(jīng)濟較量的一次大攤牌。

The political script for a big climate-change conference in this Danish city has U.S. President Barack Obama and other world leaders flying in later this week to christen a new era of global environmental cooperation. In reality, the summit is shaping up as a pivotal economic showdown between the U.S. and China.

國際能源署(IEA)估計，在未來20年中，幾乎所有溫室氣體的排放增長都將來自發(fā)展中國家，其中一半來自中國。眼下在哥本哈根爭論的焦點就是經(jīng)濟實力大增的中國是否應(yīng)該從美國和歐洲每年獲得數(shù)十億美元的援助來幫助它轉(zhuǎn)型為更清潔的經(jīng)濟增長模式。

The International Energy Agency projects that nearly all the growth in global greenhouse-gas emissions over the next two decades will come from developing countries -- and that fully half of that total will come from China alone. A central point of contention here is whether China, amid all its newfound economic might, still deserves billions of dollars in annual aid from the U.S. and Europe to help it shift to a cleaner pattern of growth.

中國人認為的答案是“是的”。中國外交部副部長何亞非上周五說，富裕國家在消耗化石燃料的基礎(chǔ)上積累了財富，打一個比方，就像一屋子人在吃飯，發(fā)達國家已經(jīng)吃很久了，發(fā)展中國家剛坐下來，發(fā)達國家就說，應(yīng)該由你們來埋單。

China says the answer is yes. He Yafei, China's vice foreign minister, said on Friday that rich nations, which built their prosperity on fossil fuels, are like people who go out for a fancy dinner and then, when a poor guest arrives late for dessert, demand that he pay the same bill for his meal as everyone else.

何亞非說，這不公平，誰造成了這一問題誰就該負責。不過，他說歐盟大體遵守了自己的減排承諾，他幾次點名批評美國沒有盡到應(yīng)盡的義務(wù)。

'It's not fair,' Mr. He said. 'Whoever created this problem, they're responsible,' he said. Although he said the European Union had largely lived up to its emission-reduction promises, he singled out the U.S. several times by name as a country that hadn't done its share.

簡而言之，何亞非認為情況較上世紀90年代末、即當前用以應(yīng)對全球變暖的京都議定書(Kyoto Protocol)商討之時并沒有發(fā)生太多變化。京都議定書要求工業(yè)化國家削減自身排放，并資助發(fā)展中國家推廣節(jié)能汽車及太陽能板等清潔能源技術(shù)。

In short, Mr. He is arguing that not much has changed since the late 1990s, when the basis for the current international framework designed to combat global warming -- a treaty called the Kyoto Protocol -- was negotiated. Kyoto called on industrialized countries to cut their own emissions and help developing countries with subsidies to promote cleaner technologies like energy-efficient cars and solar panels.

不過美國方面認為中國已經(jīng)不再有資格獲得優(yōu)待了。美國首席談判代表斯特恩(Todd Stern)在上周三的一個新聞發(fā)布會上說，雖然更貧困的發(fā)展中國家仍需要西方的幫助來獲得清潔能源技術(shù)，但中國與它們不一樣。他說，我沒有想過公共資金、特別是來自美國的資金將流向中國，不能通過給發(fā)展中大國通行證的方式解決這個問題。

But the U.S. argues China no longer deserves special treatment. Though poorer developing countries still need Western help to nurture clean-energy technologies, China is different, Todd Stern, the chief U.S. climate negotiator, told a news conference here last Wednesday. 'I don't envision public funds -- certainly not from the United States -- going to China,' he said. 'There is no way to solve this problem by giving the major developing countries a pass.'

就環(huán)境問題而言，溫室氣體排放量占全球排放總量約40%的中美兩國是此次聯(lián)合國氣候峰會上兩股最重要的力量。截至目前，此次哥本哈根會議主要凸現(xiàn)出了中美在氣候政策上的深刻分歧。兩國對政策細節(jié)的爭論是未來數(shù)十年兩國廣泛經(jīng)濟實力較量的一個縮影。眼見中國將提高能源使用效率，而不是限制碳燃料使用增長，許多美國商界領(lǐng)袖擔心大幅削減化石燃料使用將提高生產(chǎn)成本并使得他們在和中國的競爭中處于不利地位。

Environmentally speaking, the U.S. and China, which together account for some 40% of global greenhouse-gas emissions, are the nations that matter most in the U.N. climate debate. So far, the Copenhagen summit has served mainly to illuminate their profound disagreements over climate policy. The arguments over the details of climate policy reflect the broader contest between the U.S. and China for economic power in the decades ahead. Many business leaders in the U.S. worry that efforts to dramatically cut fossil-fuel consumption could raise their production costs and put them at a disadvantage to rivals in a China that is becoming more efficient, but not limiting its carbon-fueled growth.

上個月，中美在先后兩天時間里宣布了自己的減排目標。美國宣布在2020年之前將把碳排放較2005年的水平減少17%，與有待美國國會通過的氣候立法基本相符。而中國提出在2020年前將碳強度（即每單位國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值能耗）較2005年削減40%至45%。

On two consecutive days last month, both the U.S. and China announced specific emission-reduction targets. The U.S. said it would reduce emissions 17% below 2005 levels by 2020, a number broadly in line with climate-change legislation pending on Capitol Hill. China said it would cut its 'carbon intensity' -- the amount of greenhouse-gas emissions produced per unit of economic output -- 40% to 45% below 2005 levels by 2020.

不過，研究顯示，即便中國實現(xiàn)了這一目標，它在2020年時的碳排放量仍將比2005年時激增逾75%。外交關(guān)系協(xié)會(Council on Foreign Relations)專攻能源及氣候變化問題的高級研究員列維(Michael Levi)說，國際能源署、美國能源部以及中國政府部門的研究都表明，早在中國近期發(fā)表減排聲明之前，中國削減約45%碳強度的目標就是很有希望實現(xiàn)的。

But even if China achieved that carbon-intensity cut, the country's total emissions still would surge more than 75% above the 2005 level by 2020, studies project. Michael Levi, a senior fellow specializing in energy and climate change at the Council on Foreign Relations, says studies by the IEA, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the Chinese government all suggest that China was on track to achieve a roughly 45% reduction in carbon intensity even before its recent announcement.

歐盟和奧巴馬提議歐盟和美國應(yīng)該在2050年之前將碳排放總量削減80%。但是何亞非說，許下這樣的遠期諾言是容易的，他懷疑發(fā)達國家承諾的誠意。

The European Union and Mr. Obama have proposed that the EU and the U.S. will aim to slash their total emissions on the order of 80% by 2050. But Mr. He said it is easy to make such long-term promises. 'I doubt the sincerity of developed countries in their commitment,' he said.

何亞非說中國的環(huán)境承諾雖然可能不那么堂皇，但是更為實際。他說，我很高興與任何人進行辯論，看看中國的承諾是比其他國家多還是少；畢竟事實勝于雄辯。

Mr. He said China's environmental pledge, while perhaps less grandiose, is more real. 'I would happily go to debate with any person to see whether what China has committed is less or more than another country,' he said. 'Facts speak louder than words.'