美國政要第10課

所屬教程:美國政要

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RMA from a Historical Perspective
--Interview with Mr. Chuck Hawkins, the Director of the Historical Evaluation & Research Organization(HERO) Library.(May 16, 1998) 訪軍事歷史評估與研究中心主任查爾斯•霍金斯
MR. CHEN BOJIANG: In March 1998 the Historical Evaluation & Research Organization(HERO) Library and the China Defense Science & Technology Information Center (CDSTIC) co-hosted the Hua-Mei Workshop in Beijing. What is the reason behind selecting RMA as the theme for the Hua-Mei Workshop?
MR. HAWKINS: As you know, HERO has been in existence since 1962, when it was founded by the late Trevor N. Dupuy, a noted military historian and researcher, In the 1980s, Dupuy lectured several times in China. I believe you attended one of his lectures at the Academy of Military Science. I maintained the contacts in Beijing after Dupuy’s death. My CDSTIC colleagues and I agreed that mutual exchanges on conventional military research topics would be valuable for the United States and China, and that these meetings could do much to foster friendship and greater understanding. So we agreed to hold an “informal” workshop in Beijing to begin, and see how things developed.
In March 1997, I lectured at CDSTIC on the subject of information warfare1 and information operations. This helped to set the stage for the workshop. At this time we agreed that the revolution in military affairs was a vital and important topic to discuss in the future. This is particularly true since information technology and information systems are so much a part of RMA.
Since the 1990-1991 Persian Gulf War, China has made prodigious2 efforts to collect, assess and understand information about RMA, most of it focused on high technology weaponry, information systems, and command, control, communications, intelligence, reconnaissance, surveillance, and target acquisition (C3I/RSTA), and most of that focused on Western equipment, concepts and use. With the exception of the United States, China has produced more studies, papers and articles on RMA than any other nation.
MR. CHEN: What were the main topics discussed at the workshop? What’s your opinion on it?
MR. HAWKINS: We covered a variety of interesting paper topics at Hua-Mei Ⅰ.There were 11 papers by Chinese researchers and five by American analysts.
A central question for workshop participants was what the term RMA actually means. Although precise definitions are not necessary to discuss a topic, a general understanding is important to aid analytical exchanges.
For me, the most important thing about RMA is historical perspective. Without history as a guide there are mistakes that will be made, and nonproductive paths followed. And, some very important avenues of research may be overlooked.
I like to begin with a definition of the word “revolution.” Webster’s Dictionary says that it means a “displacement of an existing order.” For RMA, this question must be answered: “What is the existing order that RMA is displacing?” without analyzing history it’s impossible to say accurately what the answer is.
The world has already undergone several technological revolutions in this century that have had direct, if not exclusive, application to the use of military force. For the 20th century, the advent3 of the airplane, wireless communication, nuclear energy, digital computation and communication, advanced electronics, exo-atmospheric4 vehicles, and advances in medical science have all brought varying degrees of revolutionary activities to the modern battlefield.
The airplane was revolutionary because it displaced the existing order of traveling by land or sea, or at least augmented land and sea travel in a new way. Armed forces could now fight in the air, move farther faster.
Wireless communication displaced or nearly displaced messengers. It also extended the range of communications, even into space.
Nuclear weapons displaced an existing order by increasing dramatically the number and proportion of battlefield loss. As we know, casualty rates have generally declined over the past 400 years. Nuclear weapons reversed or would reverse that trend dramatically.
Digital computers and communications displaced the existing order of analog5 computation by hand or simple machine by making computation many times faster and communications capable of carrying much more information in a shorter period of time.
Advanced electronics and optics now enable soldiers to see to fight during periods of low visibility, a revolutionary change from the past.
Exo-atmospheric missiles changed the existing order by enabling stand off attacks around the globe; and satellites give high resolution pictures of ground targets.
Advances in medicine have extended lives, displacing the existing order of old age into man’s 70th year and beyond; and it has helped dramatically to decrease the number of wounded soldiers who die of their wounds.
It is also interesting to use history to analyze what hasn’t changed very much. That is, to look at weapon platforms and military technology that is improving only on the margin systems that are mature, and, which, if they could be displaced by a new order, would herald6 a new revolution.
MR. CHEN: Could you give me some examples?
MR. HAWKINS: Of course! Manned aircraft are mature. Manned aircraft will not fly much faster, or turn tighter, or pull more “Gs” than those that existed a few years ago. The big leap in aircraft technology came between World War Ⅰ and World War Ⅱ. What would be revolutionary here? Displacing the pilot with unmanned aerial vehicles is one answer.
Rifles will not fire farther or more accurately or be lighter weight except on the margin. The big change for infantry rifles came in the first half of the 19th century when rifled barrels and conoidal7 bullets displaced smoothbore muskets and ball shot.
Main battle tanks are mature, and won’t improve much in terms of power to weight ratio, fire power, armor protection or speed without revolutionary technology.
Along with the maturing of many weapon systems and military equipment has come a maturation of military doctrine and organization. This confluence of technology, theory and organization has led to optimal operations on the battlefield. This is very similar to conditions in Europe in 1815 at the defeat of Napoleon at Waterloo. Of course, not too many years after that the conoidal bullet, rifled musket8, effective breech blocks and later, smokeless powder changed the battlefield dramatically. It was years before theory, organization could catch up. It makes one wonder what the future surprises of RMA will be.
About the time of the 1990-1991 Persian Gulf War, the continuing trend in improvements in technology, military theory, and organization was lumped under the rubric of revolution in military affairs. Indeed, the most exciting and promising technological areas seem to be: microelectronics (including lasers) microbiotics9, optics10 (including lasers), propulsion and power, and materials science. Overarching the RMA is an explosion of information technology and digitized information that has become so global in scope that it has earned the term “information age.”
Some argue that today’s RMA is more evolutionary than revolutionary; that the true revolution is yet to come. These analysts suggest that for the next 15 years or so, technology will advance along expected paths. Then, sometime 15-30 years from now, a true military revolution will occur, one that is difficult to foresee clearly, if at all.

WORDS AND EXPRESSIONS 詞匯提示
1.information warfare 信息戰(zhàn)
2.prodigious [] a.巨大的
3.advent [] n.出現(xiàn)，到來
4.exo-atmospheric [] a.大氣層外的
5.analog [] n.相似物，相似體
6.herald [] v.預示
7.conoidal [] a.圓錐形的
8.musket [] n.步槍
9.microbiotics [] n.微生物
10. optics [] n.光學

QUESTONS AFTER LISTENING 聽后答題:
1.When was the HERO founded?
A.In 1972. B.In 1962.
C.In 1964. D.In 1982.
2. Who maintained the contacts with Beijing after Mr. Dupuy’s death?
A.Mr. Hawkins. B.Mr. Perry.
C.Mr. Marshall. D.Mr. Smith.
3. On what subject did Mr. Hawkins lecture at CDSTIC in March 1997?
A.The RMA.
B.The new weapons development.
C.The information warfare.
D.Military science.
4. Which country has produced more studies, papers and articles on the RMA than any other nations except the U.S. according to Mr. Hawkins?
A.Russia. B.China.
C.Japan. D.Germany.
5. What is the definition of the word “revolution” in Webster’s Dictionary?
A.It means a “complete change in military affairs”.
B.It means a “great change in social system”.
C.It means a “displacement of an existing order”.
D.It means a “great change of concepts”.
6. Why did Mr. Hawkins say that the airplane was revolutionary?
A.Because it changed the living way of people.
B.Because it changed the living way of message exchange.
C.Because it displaced the old way of thinking.
D.Because it displaced the existing order of travelling by land or sea, or at least augmented land and sea travel in a new way.
7. What did nuclear weapons displace?
A.It displaced the existing order of fight.
B.It displaced an existing order by increasing dramatically the number and proportion of battlefield loss.
C.It displaced the existing order of weapons development.
D.It displaced the existing order of weapons use.
8. Why did Mr. Hawkins say manned aircraft were mature?
A.Because manned aircraft will not fly much faster, or turn tighter, or pull more “Gs” than those that existed a few years ago.
B.Because manned aircraft will not be changed in its shape.
C.Because manned aircraft will not need to improve its function.
D.Because manned aircraft will not replace its airborne equipment.
9. When did the big leap in aircraft technology come?
A.It came after the World War Ⅱ.
B.It came in the World War Ⅱ.
C.It came before the World War Ⅱ.
D.It came between the World War Ⅰand the World War Ⅱ.
10. What did it take place in Europe in 1815?
A.Nazi was defeated.
B.Czar was defeated.
C.Napoleon was defeated.
D.Caesar was defeated.

【參考譯文】
用歷史觀點看軍事革命
陳伯江：1998年3月軍事歷史評估與研究中心與中國國防科技信息中心在北京共同召開了“華美軍事革命討論會”，為什么要選擇軍事革命作為這次討論的主題？
霍金斯：如你所知，軍事歷史評估與研究中心由著名的軍事歷史學家特雷費•杜派于1962年成立。八十年代，杜派曾多次到中國講學。我想你可能聽過他在軍事科學院的報告。1993年杜派去世之后，我繼續(xù)保持了與中國的聯(lián)系。中國國防科技信息中心的同行和我都認為，就一般軍事研究課題進行交流對于中美雙方都是有益的，對于發(fā)展友誼和增進了解很有好處。于是我們商定在北京共同舉辦一次非正式的討論會，以此為開端，探索如何進一步發(fā)展交流。
1997年3月，我以“信息戰(zhàn)和信息作戰(zhàn)”為題，應邀在中國國防科技信息中心作了一次報告。該報告為這次討論會打下了基礎。當時我們就一致認為，軍事革命是今后應該進一步討論的一個極為重要的問題。確實是這樣，因為信息技術與信息系統(tǒng)是軍事革命中的一個非常重要的組成部分。
海灣戰(zhàn)爭以來，中國在收集、評估和理解有關軍事革命的信息方面，已經(jīng)作出了巨大的努力。其重點大多數(shù)放在高技武器、信息系統(tǒng)、以及指揮、控制、通訊、情報、偵察、監(jiān)視、目標搜索等方面；其重點大多數(shù)放在西方的裝備、作戰(zhàn)概念和運用上。中國完成的有關軍事革命的研究報告、論文和文章，比除美國之外的任何其它國家都多。
陳：“華美軍革命討論會”研究的主要問題是什么？您怎樣看待軍事革命？
霍金斯：在討論會上共交流了16篇論文，其中中國研究人員的論文11篇，美方5篇，內(nèi)容包括了許多很有意思的問題。
研討的中心問題是軍事革命的含義是什么。雖然討論沒有必要作出確切的定義，但從總體上加以理解對于分析交流也是很重要的。
在我看來，理解軍事革命最重要的是要用歷史的觀點。沒有歷史作指導，就會出現(xiàn)錯誤，就不能發(fā)現(xiàn)有效的途徑，并且還可能會忽略一些很重要的研究方法。
我想先來談談“革命”這個詞的定義?！俄f氏大辭典》的解釋是：革命是對“現(xiàn)有秩序的替代”。對于軍事革命來說，也必須回答這樣一個問題：“什么是軍事革命將要替代的秩序？”離開歷史的分析，是不可能找到這一問題的正確答案的。
本世紀世界上已經(jīng)發(fā)生了幾次技術革命，這些革命曾經(jīng)直接（如果不是完全的）運用于軍事。20世紀飛機、無線通訊、原子能、數(shù)字計算機和數(shù)字通訊、高級電子學、大氣層外飛行器等的發(fā)明以及醫(yī)學的進步等等，所有這些都程度不同地為現(xiàn)代戰(zhàn)場帶來了革命性的變化：
飛機的發(fā)明是革命性的，因為它替代了現(xiàn)有的陸上或海上旅行的方式（或者至少在陸上、海上旅行之外增加了一種新的方式）?，F(xiàn)在，軍隊可以在空中作戰(zhàn)，以更快的速度推進。
無線通訊替代（或幾乎替代）了傳令兵，它還擴大了通訊的范圍，甚至進入空間。
核武器通過極大地增加戰(zhàn)場傷亡的數(shù)量和比例，替代了“現(xiàn)有的秩序“。我們知道，在過去400年里，傷亡率在總體上是下降的，核武器極大地改變了（或?qū)淖儯┻@一趨勢。
數(shù)字計算機替代了由手工和簡單機器進行模擬計算的“現(xiàn)有秩序”，并使計算速度提高許多倍；數(shù)字通訊則能在更短的時間里傳遞更多的信息。
高級電子學和光學器材能使士兵在低能見度的條件下進行觀察和作戰(zhàn)，這是一個不同以往的革命性變化。
大氣層外導彈替代了“現(xiàn)有的秩序”是因為它使在全球范圍實施遠程攻擊成為可能；而衛(wèi)星可提供高分辨率的地面目標圖像。
醫(yī)學的進步處長了人的壽命，70或者70歲以上的年齡段“替代”了現(xiàn)有的老齡年齡段；同時大大減少了受傷軍人因傷死亡的數(shù)量。
運用歷史方法對尚未發(fā)生很大變化的領域進行分析也是很有意思的。就是看看那些僅有一些邊邊角角改善的武器平臺和軍事技術。這些武器系統(tǒng)比校成熟，如果它們能被一種新的“秩序“所替代，則將預示著一場新的革命將要來臨。
陳：您能舉幾個例子嗎？
霍金斯：當然可以。有人駕駛飛機是成熟的系統(tǒng)。與幾年前已有的性能相比，有人駕駛飛機的飛行速度將不會再快很多，或轉(zhuǎn)彎半徑再小很多，或載重比更高很多。飛機技術的巨大進步發(fā)生在第一次世界大戰(zhàn)和第二次世界大戰(zhàn)之間。那么，什么地方將會發(fā)生革命性變化呢？以無人駕駛航空器替代飛行員就是一個答案。
讓步槍射得更遠、或射得更準、或重量更輕的改進余地已經(jīng)十分有限。步槍的巨大變化出現(xiàn)在１９世紀前半葉，當時以來福槍管和錐形子彈取代了滑膛槍管和實心子彈。
主戰(zhàn)坦克是成熟的系統(tǒng)。如果沒有革命性的技術，其動力與重量比、火力、護甲或速度等都將不會有很大的改進。
內(nèi)燃式發(fā)動機是成熟的技術，除非有革命性的新技術出現(xiàn)，如渦輪發(fā)動機微型化技術出現(xiàn)，否則其改進余地也不大。
隨著許多武器系統(tǒng)和軍事裝備的成熟，軍事理論與編制也趨于成熟。技術、理論與編制的交互影響導致戰(zhàn)場上以最佳方式進行作戰(zhàn)。這與1815年歐洲拿破侖兵敗滑鐵盧的情況非常相似。當然，此后沒有多少年錐形子彈、來福槍管、有效的槍栓以及此后不久無煙火藥的出現(xiàn)，極大地改變了戰(zhàn)場。作戰(zhàn)理論、軍隊編制需要多年時間才能趕上技術的發(fā)展。這使我們對未來軍事革命將帶來什么樣的奇跡深感興趣。
大約在1990～1991年波斯灣戰(zhàn)爭的時候，技術、軍事理論和編制體制不斷改進的趨勢被概括地稱為軍事革命，其中最令人激動和有發(fā)展前途的技術是：微電子學（包括機器人技術）、微生物學、光學（包括激光）、推進器和動力、以及材料科學。貫穿軍事革命的是信息技術和數(shù)字化信息的迅猛發(fā)展，其波及全球的程度如此之大，以致有了“信息時代”這一專門術語。
有人認為，今天的軍事革命是進化的，而非革命的，真正的革命尚未到來。這些分析家提出，在今后15年左右，技術將按照人們預期的道路發(fā)展。然后，從現(xiàn)在起的15至30年的某個時候，將會出現(xiàn)一場真正的軍事革命，這場革命即使現(xiàn)在可以預測，也是很難預料清楚的。

KEYS TO THE QUESTIONS 參考答案：
1.b 2.a 3.c 4.b 5.c 6.d 7.b 8.a 9.d 10.c