美國(guó)政要第12課

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Research on the Force XXI
--Interview with Dr. Douglas V. Johnson, Senior Fellow of the Army War College (May 1, 1998) 訪美國(guó)陸軍軍事學(xué)院戰(zhàn)略研究所高級(jí)研究員道格拉斯•約翰遜博士
MR. CHEN BOJIANG: The U.S. Army has begun research on the Force XXI1 and the Army After Next2 for several years. What is the main purpose and highlights of this research? What is the progress on this research?
DR. JOHNSON: My area of focus is the future, but it’s also American doctrine and American military history. My particular task at the moment is development of this army after next idea, looking forward to the year 2025,and trying to discern the shape of things and consider what requirements we might have.
The purpose is to take advantage of what we believe may be a revolution in military technology, and change the organization and the equipment in the Army, so that it is abreast of the latest most effective technologies. Whether this will nean we have a smaller force or not is very unclear; but we do know hat we can increase the capability for the force that we do have through the technologies, which are maturing now in very interesting ways.
If you go back into our “Army” magazine-it’s a magazine that the Association of the United States Army3 publishes in a monthly basis Go back to 1950, and you will see systems in there or drawings of weapons which we are now beginning to see become reality. And what it’s saying to us is that it’s taken about 40-year for the technologies to mature.
We believe that this 40-year cycle4 is going to get shorter, maybe to 30, maybe to 20, maybe even down to 10 years. But we know that part of it is technology, part of it is politics and part of it is money that’s available. So we’re trying to investigate now as many new technologies as we can to try to decide which we want to invest money in now so that we can develop as quickly as possible, so we don’t have a 40-year lag in the real generation of equipment.
The Force XXI is an investigative5 process by which we test and experiment as many things as we can. The objective is out at about 2010 to have Army XXI.
The Force XXI is going to look an awful lot like today’s army in terms of the equipment. The equipment will be better. We’ll still have 70-ton M-1A - whatever -Abrams tanks, but they’ll be able to do a lot more things a lot better.
The Army After Next will focus on the period from 2010 to, maybe 2025, maybe beyond 2025. This period will witness great loops. Things are not going to look like today. At least that’s how we’re thinking of it now.
The first time we looked at it we said we want to have flying tanks. Well, we’ve looked at that, and we’ve said, not by 2025. We can’t do that. But we might be able to have a vehicle which weighed, let’s say, 15 tons, but it could move 100 miles an hour, maybe 50 miles an hour cross country. It wouldn’t necessarily have a gun on it, but it would be able to, through a whole system of sensors - it would be able to attack targets out at ranges of 10, 20, maybe even 30 kilometers, with about a 0.99 probability that it would kill them. But it wouldn’t be a direct fire weapon, it would be an indirect fire weapon, with a fire-seeker head6 on it or something like that. It would have a couple of missiles on board for self defense in case it came around the corner and met a tank. Because it’s a 15 tons, you know, that it can’t stand up to any kind of modern tank today, and it would just be blown away.
We would like this thing to be able to fly. We still want that flying tank, but we know we’re not going to be able to get it. So we want to get it down to some much lighter weight, so that we can move it about the battlefield more rapidly. Now, that’s one line of thought7.
There is another line of thought that says, that’s interesting, and that’s also a waste of money. In fact, the war that you’ll be fighting out here in 2025 will all be with computers, maybe. Instead of a 15-ton vehicle, maybe you’ll have a 4-ton vehicle but it will be robotic, and it will be controlled by a broadly distributed set of sensors, and it will be able to do great and wonderful things. And there are other variations on this thing.
But what this is going to look like out here, we’re not sure. We’ve run three war games, and each one has been very different, and I expect that we will run at least one game a year, devoted to what this thing is for the next 10 years. And we’re going to investigate wider and wider areas.
What do we really want? We want fast-moving, agile8, all-weather fire power, that has a very good capability. Well, is that a helicopter? For right now the answer is yes, that’s the helicopter. But out here could it be something else?
By the year 2010, we will have helicopters, tanks, some of these sensor nets, overhead communications9, and lots of other things, and they will be really good, but you’re still going to have this 70-ton behemoth10 tank, so your ability to move it around strategically is going to be very limited. And there will be places in the world where you can’t move it tactically very well.
So this is sort of the structure, the basic underlying structure that we look at. Normal, incremental progression out to about 2010, and then hopefully somewhere in the next 15 years beyond that, a leap as these emerging technologies mature, and we have to figure out what we can really do.

WORDS AND EXPRESSIONS 詞匯提示
1.the Force XXI“21世紀(jì)陸軍”
2.Army After Next“后天的陸軍”
3.the Association of the United States Army 美國(guó)陸軍協(xié)會(huì)
4.cycle [] n.周期
5.investigative [] a.調(diào)查研究的
6.a fire-seeker head 火力探頭
7.one line of thought 一種思路
8.agile [] a.靈敏的
9.overhead communication 空中通訊
10.behemoth [] n.龐然大物

QUESTIONS AFTER LISTENING 聽后答題:
1. What is Dr. Johnson’s area of focus?
A.It is the security situation.
B.It is the future of Army.
C.It is the missile.
D.It is the nuclear weapon.
2. What is “Army” magazine?
A.It is a magazine that the U.S. Army publishes on a monthly basis.
B.It is a magazine that the U.S. Army publishes on a quarterly basis.
C.It is a magazine that the Association of the U.S. Army publishes on a quarterly basis.
D.It is a magazine that the Association of the U.S. Army publishes on a monthly basis.
3. How long has it taken for the technologies to mature?
A.About 20 years. B.About 15 years.
C.About 25 years. D.About 40 years.
4. What does the Force XXI mean?
A.It means an investigative process.
B.It means a decision-making process.
C.It means a nurturing process.
D.It means a proving process.
5. When will the objective of the Force XXI be out?
A.At about 2010. B.At about 2020.
C.At about 2015. D.At about 2025.
6. What period will the Army After Next focus on?
A.It will focus on the period from 2010 to 2020.
B.It will focus on the period from 2000 to 2010.
C.It will focus on the period from 2010 to or beyond 2025.
D.It will focus on the period from 2020 to 2025.
7. What did they want the first time they considered the equipment of the Army After Next?
A.Flying boat. B.Flying tank.
C.Flying truck. D.Flying robot.
8. How many times did they run war games?
A.Four. B.Five. C.Three. D.Seven.
9. What did Dr. Johnson expect about the equipment development of the Army about 2010?
A.Rapidly development.
B.Great breakthrough in new weapons.
C.Similar things like today.
D.Normal, incremental progression.
10. What did Dr. Johnson expect about the equipment development in the next 15 years beyond 2010?
A.A leap in missile technology.
B.A leap in tactical nuclear weapons.
C.A leap in precision weapons.
D.A leap as the emerging technologies mature.

【參考譯文】
21 世紀(jì)陸軍研究
陳伯江：美國(guó)陸軍開始“21世紀(jì)陸軍”和“后天的陸軍”的研究工作已有好幾年了，這一研究的主要目的和重點(diǎn)是什么？已取得哪些收獲？
約翰遜：我的專業(yè)領(lǐng)域是未來(lái)研究，但也包括美國(guó)的軍事理論和軍事歷史。我目前的主要任務(wù)是研究“后天的陸軍”，展望2005年，力求弄清到那時(shí)將會(huì)出現(xiàn)哪些新情況，及這些新情況可能向我們提出的要求。
研究“21世紀(jì)陸軍”和“后天的陸軍”的目的，是充分利用我們認(rèn)為可能引起軍事上革命的技術(shù)，變革陸軍的編制和裝備，使之與最新最有效的技術(shù)發(fā)展同步。雖然我們還不清楚部隊(duì)的規(guī)模是否會(huì)更小，但我們的確認(rèn)為通過(guò)現(xiàn)在正在以非常有意思的方式成熟起來(lái)的技術(shù)，我們可以使現(xiàn)有的部隊(duì)的能力提高。
如果你回頭看看我們1950年的《陸軍》雜志（由美國(guó)陸軍協(xié)會(huì)出版的月刊），你會(huì)看到現(xiàn)在正在變?yōu)楝F(xiàn)實(shí)的各種系統(tǒng)或武器的草圖。這就會(huì)告訴我們，這些技術(shù)的成熟花了大約40年時(shí)間。
我們認(rèn)為這個(gè)40年的周期將會(huì)縮短，可能30年，可能20年，甚至可能縮短為10年。但我們知道技術(shù)更新一部分取決于技術(shù)，一部分取決于政治，還有一部分取決于可獲得的資金。因此，我們現(xiàn)在正盡可能調(diào)查了解盡量多的新技術(shù)，以確定我們想要投入資金的領(lǐng)域，使我們能盡快地發(fā)展，使武器裝備的更新?lián)Q代不需要40年時(shí)間。
“21世紀(jì)陸軍”是一個(gè)調(diào)查研究的過(guò)程。通過(guò)這一過(guò)程，我們要盡可能地進(jìn)行多方面的試驗(yàn)和實(shí)驗(yàn)，其目標(biāo)是在2010年建成“21世紀(jì)陸軍”。
就裝備而言，“21世紀(jì)陸軍”將在許多方面與今天的陸軍相似，但會(huì)更好些。不管怎樣，我們?nèi)詫碛?0噸的M-1A艾布拉姆斯坦克，但它們能做的事情更多，做得也要好得好。
“后天的陸軍”研究2010年之后到2025年（可能再長(zhǎng)一點(diǎn)時(shí)間）陸軍的發(fā)展問(wèn)題。這期間會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)飛躍性變化。“后天的陸軍”看起來(lái)與今天的完全不同，至少我們現(xiàn)在這樣認(rèn)為。
在我們最早想象“后天的陸軍”的裝備的時(shí)候，我們想有一種“飛機(jī)坦克”。于是，我們進(jìn)行研究，認(rèn)為到2025年還不行。我們不可能做到。我們有可能會(huì)有重15噸的坦克，它每小時(shí)可行駛100英里，也可能達(dá)到50英里的越野速度。在這種坦克上不一定要裝備槍炮，但它通過(guò)一個(gè)集中的傳感器系統(tǒng)，可以以0.99的殺傷概率攻擊10、20、甚至30公里以內(nèi)的目標(biāo)。這種坦克不是直瞄火力系統(tǒng)，而是帶有火力探頭的間瞄武器或者類似的什么東西。它將會(huì)裝備幾枚導(dǎo)彈用于自衛(wèi)，以防在轉(zhuǎn)彎時(shí)突然遇到敵方坦克。因?yàn)樗?5噸，你知道它無(wú)法與今天任何類型的現(xiàn)代坦克相對(duì)抗，它是不堪一擊的。我們希望它能飛行，我們?nèi)韵胗羞@種“飛行坦克”，但我們知道這不可能實(shí)現(xiàn)，因此我們想有重量更輕的坦克，以便能夠讓它們?cè)趹?zhàn)場(chǎng)上更快地機(jī)動(dòng)。現(xiàn)在，這是一種思路。
另一種思路認(rèn)為，這挺有意思，但這也是一種浪費(fèi)。事實(shí)上，2025年的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)將可能都是以計(jì)算機(jī)來(lái)進(jìn)行的。你可能會(huì)有4噸的戰(zhàn)車而不是15噸的“飛行坦克”，新戰(zhàn)車是一種類似機(jī)器人的裝置，由廣泛分布的傳感器來(lái)操縱，它將能出色地完成許多重要任務(wù)。在這方面還有一些其它的設(shè)想。
但是，我們并不知道武器將會(huì)怎樣發(fā)展。我們已進(jìn)行了三次作戰(zhàn)模擬，每次結(jié)果都很不一樣。預(yù)計(jì)每年至少還要進(jìn)行一次模擬，連續(xù)進(jìn)行10年才能確定將來(lái)到底要發(fā)展什么樣的裝備。我們還將要在更為廣泛的領(lǐng)域進(jìn)行調(diào)查研究。
我們真正想要的東西是什么？我們想要的是能快速運(yùn)動(dòng)、靈敏、全天候的火力，它有非常好的能力。那么，它是不是直升機(jī)？就目前來(lái)說(shuō)，答案是肯定的，它是直升機(jī)，但在今后是否會(huì)是其它東西？
到2010年，將會(huì)有直升機(jī)、坦克、一些傳感器網(wǎng)、空中通訊以及許多別的東西，這些裝備都將有很好的性能，但你將仍然有重達(dá)70噸龐然大物似的坦克，因此，你的戰(zhàn)略機(jī)動(dòng)能力將仍很有限。在世界的一些地方，你是無(wú)法用70噸的坦克進(jìn)行戰(zhàn)術(shù)機(jī)動(dòng)的。
因此，這就是我們進(jìn)行研究的基本框架。在2010年以前，進(jìn)行正常的漸進(jìn)發(fā)展，然后隨著目前出現(xiàn)的技術(shù)趨于成熟，希望在其后15年的某個(gè)時(shí)候產(chǎn)生飛躍，我們的任務(wù)就是弄清真正能做些什么。

KEYS TO THE QUESTIONS 參考答案：
1.b 2.d 3.d 4.a 5.a 6.c 7.b 8.c 9.d 10.d