美國政要第18課
Agencies and Organizations for
U.S. Military Doctrine
--Interview with Dr. Andrew Marshall, the Director of Net Assessment of DoD 訪美國國防部基本評估辦公室主任安德魯•馬歇爾博士
MR.CHEN BOJIANG: You are the director of Net Assessment 1 of DoD 2, I wonder if I can begin my interview with questions related to your work. What is the role of Net Assessment? How is Net Assessment related to the research on Revolution in Military Affairs and future warfare?
Dr. Andrew Marshall: Well, the role of the office has been to make assessments of the military situation, the military balance, in geographical areas or military mission areas. When it started, the office began in 1973, and it was focused pretty much on U.S., Soviet Union plus allies on both sides. The objectives of these assessment was not only to provide assessment, not only whether the situation was satisfactory, from a U.S. perspective3, but also to provide assessment of the long term trends that were underway, and to surface4 for the top level managers here in the department, issues they ought to pay attention to and do something about. It could be an emerging problem, or an opportunity we ought to seek. And of course with the collapse of the Soviet Union, we began to look at other things. One of those has been the possibility of a Revolution in Military Affairs. So we began in the late 1980s to make an assessment of that area, from the perspective of, did we think what the Russians were then writing about, the onset of a new period of military revolution in the late 1970s, early 1980s.So in the late 1980s we began to have an intersection5 of the questions of were the Russians really right, were we moving towards one of these periods, like others in the past historically when really big changes in warfare take place. If so, were we at the beginning, middle or end of the change? Why is it happening? So, in the middle of 1992, we brought out this assessment which more or less said yes we think the Russians are right, we're probably at the beginning of this process. Why is it happening? For the moment we think the driving factors are a result of the development of the information technologies, of the microchip6, and communications technology and so on. Then while we had a little bit to say about future warfare, we surfaced four or five major issues that we talked about. Since then, we've continued to work in this area, because we find not only notions7 about what future warfare might look like, largely through war gaming8. We've commissioned9 a number of historical studies. How are these big changes happening and why is it our military that's much more successful than others in this period of change?
MR. CHEN: How many agencies and organizations are in charge of developing military doctrine and military concepts in the national security structure of your country? What is the relationship between them?
Dr. Andrew Mar shall: How many? Well，you must know from your experience here, that the American defense research process is a very open one, and there are all kinds of organizations that have a role. Oh, to know about military doctrine, then that narrows it down a little. There are the military services, there's an effort to develop joint doctrine now, but broadly, over all kinds of other issues it's very complex and large numbers of organizations.
Practice Listening to words詞匯聽力練習(xí)：
1.Net Assessment 基本評估辦公室
2.DoD:Department of Defense （美國）國防部
3.perspective [] n. 看法
4.surface for （向）……提出
5.intersection [] n. 十字路口
6.microchip [] n. 微芯片
7.notion [] n. 概念，看法
8.war gaming 作戰(zhàn)模擬
9.commission [] vt. 委托，任命
【參考譯文】
美國的軍事研究機構(gòu)
陳伯江:你是國防部基本評估辦公室主任，我不知道我能否從與你的工作有關(guān)的問題開始我的訪談?；驹u估辦公室的任務(wù)是什么?基本評估辦公室與軍事革命和未來戰(zhàn)爭的研究有什么聯(lián)系?
馬歇爾:基本評估辦公室的任務(wù)是按照地緣領(lǐng)域和軍事任務(wù)領(lǐng)域?qū)娛滦蝿莺蛙娛铝α繉Ρ冗M行評估。該辦公室成立于1973年，當(dāng)時的工作重點主要放在美、蘇兩國及其各自的盟國，評估的目的不僅僅是根據(jù)美國的看法做出對形勢是否滿意的判斷，而且提供形勢發(fā)展的長期趨勢，就某些問題提請國防部高層領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人關(guān)注并敦促其采取行動，這些問題可能是正在出現(xiàn)的問題，也可能是我們應(yīng)當(dāng)抓住的機會。當(dāng)然，由于蘇聯(lián)的崩潰，我們開始關(guān)注其它事情，其中之一就是軍事革命。因此，我們從80年代末開始對這一領(lǐng)域進行評估，從美國的情況出發(fā)，對蘇聯(lián)在70年代后期和80年代初提出的“軍事革命新時期來臨”的觀點進行了研究。于是，我們從80年代末開始提出這樣一些需要抉擇的問題:是否真的存在著蘇聯(lián)人所說的軍事革命?我們是否正在進入像過去歷史上所發(fā)生過的那種戰(zhàn)爭面貌將發(fā)生巨大變化的時期?如果真是這樣，那么我們處于這場變革的開始、中間還是后期?為什么會有這場變化?到1992年年中，我們提出了對這一問題的評估結(jié)果。在這一結(jié)果中，我們多少承認了蘇聯(lián)的觀點是正確的，我們大概已處于這場革命的開始階段。為什么會有這樣一場革命?當(dāng)時我們認為是信息技術(shù)、微電子技術(shù)和通訊技術(shù)等發(fā)展的結(jié)果。在那一評估結(jié)果中我們還談到對未來戰(zhàn)爭的一些看法，提出了四、五個我們所討論的基本問題。自那以后，我們繼續(xù)進行這一領(lǐng)域的研究，主要是通過作戰(zhàn)模擬，認真研究未來戰(zhàn)爭的可能變化。我們還委托別人進行了若干項歷史研究，努力尋找一些問題的答案，如:歷史上的重大變化是如何發(fā)生的?在重大變革時期，為什么有些國家的軍隊會比另一些國家的軍隊獲得更大的成功?
陳:在你們的國家安全結(jié)構(gòu)中，有多少機構(gòu)和組織負責(zé)軍事理論和軍事思想的研究與發(fā)展?它們之間的關(guān)系如何?
馬歇爾:你從在這里的經(jīng)歷中一定知道，美國在研究方面是非常開放的，各種各樣的組織都發(fā)揮著作用。至于說到軍事理論研究，范圍要稍微小一點，目前各軍種都在努力發(fā)展聯(lián)合作戰(zhàn)理論。但從更大的范圍說，所有其他各種問題都有大量而復(fù)雜的研究機構(gòu)從事研究。
