大膽預測：南非世界杯巴西將奪冠

西班牙隊

　　"Football fans may feel that the European champions and firm fans favorite Spain is under-rated by the UBS model," the bank's global equity research team said in its World Cup 2010 research paper on Wednesday."And our local UK readers may feel the same about England’s chances. However, both teams have tended to be underachievers when it comes to the World Cup finals themselves. In the last three events, Spain and England were ranked amongst the strongest teams but did not make it beyond the quarter-final stage。

　　上周三，瑞銀的全球證券研究小組在一份針對2010年世界杯的調(diào)查報告中稱，“球迷們可能覺得西班牙隊被瑞銀的這個預測模型低估了。英國的球迷也會覺得英格蘭隊被低估了。然而，這兩支隊伍往往到了決賽階段就表現(xiàn)不佳。在頭三個賽季里，西班牙和英格蘭位列諸強，但卻紛紛止步于四分之一決賽。”

　　"Brazil has the highest probability [of winning]."

　　“巴西最有可能贏。”

　　UBS used its "econometric toolbox and quantitative models" to forecast the winner based on factors including historic results and the teams' current "Elo ratings" – which take account of not only recent wins, losses and defeats, but the conditions under which those events occurred. Beating a powerhouse like Brazil or Spain would improve a team’s Elo ranking much more than beating a smaller side like Malta or Andorra。

　　瑞銀根據(jù)各個球隊的歷史成績和當前的積分排名情況(積分不單單考慮到球隊近期的輸贏，還考慮到了比賽中的具體情況。比如，擊敗一支強隊(如巴西隊、西班牙隊)能夠獲得的積分要比擊敗一直弱隊(如馬耳他隊、安道爾隊)多很多。)，利用“經(jīng)濟計量工具箱和定量模型”來預測本屆世界杯的冠軍得主。The bank also believes World Cup hosts South Africa, despite their uninspiring recent form, are all but guaranteed a place in the second round, rating their chances at 78pc.Brazil are the second most likely to progress with 74pc. The country least likely to progress, with a probability of just 29pc, is Paraguay, UBS said。

　　瑞銀還認為，本屆世界杯東道主南非隊雖然近來士氣不旺，也有78%的幾率能進入淘汰賽。巴西隊的晉級率位居第二，為74%。晉級率最低的當屬巴拉圭隊，僅為29%。England was rated 63pc likely to escape the group stage and 21pc guaranteed to reach the semi-finals。