大膽預(yù)測(cè)：南非世界杯巴西將奪冠

英格蘭隊(duì)

　　英格蘭隊(duì)的出線率為63%，進(jìn)入半決賽的幾率為21%。The UBS model was applauded in 2006 when it selected the winner, Italy. The bankers also correctly predicted 13 of the final 16, six of the final eight, and two of the semi-finalists。

　　在2006年世界杯的角逐中，瑞銀利用預(yù)測(cè)模型預(yù)測(cè)意大利隊(duì)最有可能奪冠，并最終言中，該預(yù)測(cè)模型也因此受到了人們的好評(píng)。此外，瑞銀還曾成功預(yù)測(cè)了16強(qiáng)中的13支球隊(duì)以及八強(qiáng)中的6支球隊(duì)。

　　However, when using the model for the 2008 European Championship, the forecast winner did not make it to the second round. "The moral of the story is that one needs to be humble about the predictive power of one’s model," the Wealth Management team said。

　　不過，該模型在2008年歐錦賽中預(yù)測(cè)的奪冠熱門球隊(duì)卻未能進(jìn)入第二輪。瑞銀財(cái)富管理團(tuán)隊(duì)對(duì)此表示，“對(duì)該模型的預(yù)測(cè)能力我們還是保守一點(diǎn)為妙。”UBS's predicted quarter-finalists

　　瑞銀預(yù)測(cè)能夠進(jìn)入四分之一決賽的球隊(duì)

　　Country Likelihood of winning World Cup 2010

　　Brazil 22pc

　　Germany 18pc

　　Italy 13pc

　　Netherlands 8pc

　　France 6pc

　　Argentina 5pc

　　Spain 4pc

　　England 4pc