星火英語專業(yè)八級考試易考范文背誦50篇 41 The Relationship

[00:00.00]Topic 41 The Relationship [00:05.07]between Historical Grandeur and the Future Greatness [00:08.64]Given to the humiliating history [00:12.06]of last two centuries, [00:13.26]Chinese people always make efforts [00:15.49]to build a powerful China. [00:16.80]In the recent debate over the rise of China, [00:19.43]some grass-root scholars argue that [00:21.88]since China had achieved grandeur in ancient times, [00:24.60]Chinese people are likely to lead the world again. [00:27.56]The logic seems plausible, [00:30.16]but is there any causal relationship [00:32.69]between historical grandeur and China’s future greatness? [00:35.83]Personally, I do not agree with this opinion. [00:39.05]Firstly, the argument assumes [00:42.00]that they can predict the future by finding evidence [00:44.52]in the course of history. [00:46.16]This mistake was criticized by Karl Popper [00:49.76]in his influential book [00:51.52]The Open Society and Its Enemies. [00:53.51]In the book, [00:54.86]he lenientlessly attacks ’historicism’, [00:58.40]which means an approach to make historical predictions [01:01.72]by discovering the patterns [01:03.78]that underlie the evolution of history. [01:05.26]In other words, [01:06.54]precedent can not be used to explain [01:09.16]what will happen in the future. [01:10.40]In China’s case, undoubtedly, [01:12.96]it reached the historical peak in Tang Dynasty. [01:16.11]At that time, [01:17.19]China was preponderant in the world, [01:19.58]for no countries could successfully challenge its superiority. [01:23.38]Now consider the world situation at [01:25.79]that time. [01:26.37]The world was separated by oceans, [01:29.04]mountains, and deserts, [01:30.75]for the communications means were so retarded [01:33.64]that China enjoyed a relatively safe environment [01:35.68]except the threats from neighboring countries. [01:38.20]Nowadays, is it reasonable to predict [01:41.47]that China’s greatness in the future [01:42.96]is based on Tang Dynasty’s preponderance [01:45.75]when the world is becoming smaller [01:48.38]and more intermingled? [01:49.95]Secondly, indicative of finding evidence [01:54.02]in the course of history is China’s current weakness. [01:56.91]Though China has surpassed Germany [01:58.94]as the third largest economy, [02:00.97]its per capita income still ranks [02:03.44]in the developing country category. [02:05.22]There is still a wide gap between China [02:08.00]and the developed countries [02:09.82]in terms of science and technology, [02:10.99]education, military strength, and etc. [02:14.47]Given that China is still a developing country, [02:17.47]it is understandable [02:19.16]that we can gain inspiration [02:20.28]from the historical grandeur, [02:22.31]but we can not use it as evidence to support our goodwill. [02:25.41]What matters a great China in the future [02:28.67]is the efforts we are making at present. [02:31.19]In conclusion, we can see [02:33.91]that there is no causal relationship between [02:36.10]China’s grand history and its future. [02:38.25]Historical grandeur can only serve as inspiration [02:41.83]to urge us to make more efforts. [02:43.50]As one proverb goes, many hands make light work. [02:47.83]Chinese people will build a great nation [02:50.68]in the future with combined efforts.

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