專八閱讀訓(xùn)練：The Result of the Falling US Dollar

　　The Result of the Falling US Dollar

　　Like a ticking time bomb, the falling dollar has grabbed the attention of Japan and West Germany, forcing them to consider adopting economic polices the United States advocates. The U.S. government wants the dollar to fall because as the dollar declines in value against the yen and Deutsche mark, U.S. good becomes cheaper. U.S. companies then sell more at home and abroad, and U.S. trade deficit declines. Cries for trade protection abate, and the global free-trade system is preserved.

　　Then, the cheaper dollar makes it cheaper for many foreign investors to snap up U.S. stocks. That prompts heavy buying from abroad—especially from Japan. Also, if the trade picture is improving, that means U.S. companies eventually will be more competitive. Consequently, many investors are buying shares of export-oriented U.S. companies in anticipation of better profits in the next year or so. But that is a rather faddish notion right now; if corporate earnings are disappointing in interest rates, the stock market rally could stall.

　　Improving U.S. competitiveness means a decline in another’s competitiveness.

　　Japan and West Germany are verging on recession. Their export-oriented economies are facing major problems. Japan is worried about the damage the strong yen will do to Japanese trade. West Germany is also worried. Share prices in Frankfurt plummeted this past week. Bonn is thought to be considering a cut in interest rates to boost its economy.

　　Could the falling dollar get out of hand? If the dollar falls too far, investors might lose confidence in U.S. investments—especially the government bond market. The money to finance the federal budget and trade deficits could migrate elsewhere. Inflation could flare up, too, since Japanese and German manufacturers will eventually pass along price hikes—and U.S. companies might follow suit to increase their profit margins. The U.S. federal Reserve then might need to step in and stabilize the dollar by raising interest rates. And higher interest rates could cause the U.S. economy to slow down and end the Wall Street Rally.

　　Worried about these side effects, Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcher has said the dollar has fallen far enough. What is the equilibrium level? Probably near where it is or slightly lower. It all depends on when the U.S. trade deficit turns around or if investors defect from U.S. Treasury Bonds. “It requires a good deal of political patience on the part of the U.S. Congress,” says Dr. Cline, “And there must be an expectation of patience on the part of private investors. The chance are relatively good that we will avoid an investor break or panic.”

　　1. What is the main idea of this passage?

　　[A] The impression of the falling U.S. dollar.

　　[B] The result of the U.S. falling dollar.

　　[C] The side effect of U.S. falling dollar.

　　[D] Japan and West Germany are worried about U.S. falling dollar.

　　2. What does the word “rally” mean.

　　[A] prosperity. [B] decline. [C] richness. [D] import.

　　3. Why are Japan and West Germany worried about the falling dollar?

　　[A] Because the falling dollar may cause inflation in their countries.

　　[B] Because it may force them to sell a lot of U.S, stocks.

　　[C] Because it may do damage to their trade.

　　[D] Because it may make Japanese company less competitive.

　　4. If dollar-falling got out of hand, and the U.S. Federal Reserve might step in , what would happen?

　　[A] The prosperity of the U.S. economy would disappear.

　　[B] The U.S. economy might face serious problems.

　　[C] Investors might lose confidence in U.S. investments.

　　[D] Inflation could flare up.

　　答案詳解：

　　1. B. 美元下跌的結(jié)果。全篇文章都講的美元下跌的后果。

　　A. 美元下跌的印象。 C. 美元下跌的副作用，均不對(duì)。 因?yàn)檫€講述了有利的一面。 D. 日本的、西德?lián)鷳n美元下跌，這只是其中的部分內(nèi)容。

　　2. A. 繁榮。第五段“美元下跌是否會(huì)失控：如果美元下跌過(guò)多，投資者可能會(huì)失去對(duì)美國(guó)投資的信心，特別是對(duì)美國(guó)的債務(wù)市場(chǎng)。對(duì)聯(lián)邦政府預(yù)算和貿(mào)易赤字提供的資金可能移向其它市場(chǎng)，因?yàn)槿毡竞臀鞯聫S商最終會(huì)將上漲的價(jià)格轉(zhuǎn)嫁出去，美國(guó)公司也可能這么做，以提高其市場(chǎng)利潤(rùn)幅度，從而使通貨膨脹再次爆發(fā)。美國(guó)聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備委員會(huì)這時(shí)可能需要介入，提高利率來(lái)穩(wěn)定美元。而較高利率會(huì)導(dǎo)致美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)減慢，華爾街的繁榮行將結(jié)束。”

　　B. 衰退。 C. 富有。 D. 出口，都不是rally之含義。

　　3. C. 因?yàn)橄碌鴮?duì)他們貿(mào)易有損害。第三段“改善美國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力意味著其他國(guó)家的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力下降。”第四段，“日本和西德正瀕于經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的邊緣。其出口導(dǎo)向的經(jīng)濟(jì)正在面臨嚴(yán)重問(wèn)題。日本擔(dān)心由于日元堅(jiān)挺而給其貿(mào)易帶來(lái)?yè)p害，西德也在發(fā)愁。上個(gè)星期，法蘭克福股市價(jià)格暴跌。據(jù)說(shuō)，波恩已在考慮降低利率以振興其經(jīng)濟(jì)。

　　A. 美元下跌會(huì)使他們國(guó)家通貨膨脹。沒(méi)有正式提到, 內(nèi)涵只是貿(mào)易帶來(lái)的其他具體問(wèn)題。 B. 它可能迫使他們賣(mài)掉許多美國(guó)股票。 D. 這可能使日本競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力下降。問(wèn)題是提出兩國(guó)，不單單是日本。

　　4. A. 美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮消失，見(jiàn)第2題答案A的注釋。

　　B. 美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)可能面臨嚴(yán)重問(wèn)題。太籠統(tǒng)。 C. 投資者可能對(duì)在美國(guó)投資失去信心。這不是美國(guó)聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備委員會(huì)介入后發(fā)生之事。 D. 通貨膨脹全面爆發(fā)。這也是介入之后果。

　　詞匯：

　　1. ticking 滴答作響的

　　2. grab 抓住

　　3. abate 減弱

　　4. snap up 爭(zhēng)購(gòu)，搶購(gòu)

　　5. heavy buying 大量買(mǎi)進(jìn)

　　6. export-oriented 以出口為方向的

　　7. in anticipation of 期待，預(yù)期

　　8. faddish 一時(shí)流行的

　　9. spree 無(wú)節(jié)制的瘋狂行為

　　10. buying spree 狂購(gòu)亂買(mǎi)

　　11. plummet 垂直落下，驟然跌落，暴跌

　　12. stall 停滯

　　13. verge 處于……邊緣

　　14. verging on recession 正處于衰退的邊緣

　　15. boost 振興，吹捧

　　16. bond market 債券市場(chǎng)

　　17. flare up 突然閃耀，發(fā)火，爆發(fā)

　　18. hike 提高，增加

　　19. follow suit 照著做，跟出同花色的牌

　　20. profit margin 利潤(rùn)幅度

　　21. step in 介入

　　22. rally 繁榮

　　23. equilibrium 平衡，均勢(shì)

　　24. defect 逃跑，開(kāi)小差

　　25. break or panic 崩潰或大恐慌

　　難句譯注：

　　1. cries for trade protection 貿(mào)易保護(hù)的呼聲

　　2. the global free-trade system 全球自由貿(mào)易體系

　　3. that is a rather faddish notion right now 只是一時(shí)流行的概念

　　4. get out of hand 失控

　　5. What is the equilibrium level? Probably near where it is or slightly lower. 什么是平衡水平?可能是接近現(xiàn)在水平或者稍低一些。

　　6. trade deficit 貿(mào)易赤字，貿(mào)易逆差。

　　寫(xiě)作方法與文章大意：

　　這是一篇論述“美元下跌的后果”的文章，采用對(duì)比，順序，因果等寫(xiě)作。先提出問(wèn)題：美元下跌，美國(guó)得利有二：一是(第一段)商品便宜，銷(xiāo)售量大，赤字下降，全球自由貿(mào)易體系保住。二是(第二段)外國(guó)投資者會(huì)搶購(gòu)美國(guó)股票。總之，美國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力加強(qiáng)。

　　這兩段中都有對(duì)比。第一段美國(guó)和日本的對(duì)比，開(kāi)頭“就像滴答作響的定時(shí)炸彈，日見(jiàn)下跌的美元抓住了日本和西德的注意力，迫使他們考慮采取美國(guó)提出的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策。“第二段是美國(guó)本身之利弊對(duì)比。“……許多外國(guó)投資者搶購(gòu)出口導(dǎo)向的美國(guó)股票，期望在下一年左右的時(shí)間里得到較多的利潤(rùn)。如果公司收益在今后幾個(gè)季度里令人失望的話，這種買(mǎi)進(jìn)古片的狂熱行為就可能消失。最后，如果美元價(jià)格直線下跌導(dǎo)致利率上升，股票市場(chǎng)價(jià)格回升就會(huì)停頓。”后面兩段是這兩段負(fù)效應(yīng)的進(jìn)一步論證。