公眾人物畢業(yè)演講(MP3+字幕)第63期:金墉美國(guó)東北大學(xué)(2)

A recent study by a group of psychologists in the journal Science

幾位心理學(xué)家最近在《科學(xué)》雜志上發(fā)表了一篇研究論文

found that people are extremely poor at predicting their futures

他們發(fā)現(xiàn)人極其不擅長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)自己的未來(lái)

The study showed

他們的研究顯示

that, for example, a typical 20-year-old woman's predictions

例如 一個(gè)典型的20歲女性

for life changes in the next decade of her life

對(duì)自己未來(lái)十年人生變化的預(yù)測(cè)

were not nearly as radical

絕不像一個(gè)典型的

as the typical 30-year-old woman's recollection of how much she had changed in her 20s

30歲女性對(duì)自己在20來(lái)歲時(shí)有多大變化的回憶那么激進(jìn)

In other words, 20-year-olds had little idea of

換句話說(shuō) 20歲的人對(duì)于自己

just how much they would change over the next ten years

在未來(lái)十年會(huì)有多大變化幾乎沒(méi)有概念

This discrepancy persisted among respondents all the way into their 60s

這種差異在受訪者中一直延續(xù)到60多歲的人

This study's findings are essentially the story of my life

這項(xiàng)研究結(jié)果基本上也是我的人生故事

In fact, even before I was born, given the obstacles my parents faced

事實(shí)上 即使在我出生之前 鑒于我父母所面臨的重重障礙

I would never have predicted that, in fact, I would be born

事實(shí)上我都不敢預(yù)測(cè)我會(huì)出生

My father spent his childhood in North Korea

我的父親在朝鮮度過(guò)了他的童年

At the age of 17, he escaped across the border into South Korea

他在17歲那年偷越邊境逃到韓國(guó)

leaving his parents, his brothers and sisters, his entire extended family --

離開(kāi)他的父母 他的兄弟姐妹 他的所有親朋好友

everything he had ever known --

離開(kāi)了他所熟悉的一切

He had no money. Still

他身無(wú)分文 但是

somehow he managed to enroll in the Seoul National University Dental School

他還是設(shè)法進(jìn)了首爾國(guó)立大學(xué)牙科學(xué)院

and became a dentist

后來(lái)成為一名牙醫(yī)

He told me stories about how he had so little money

他告訴我 他口袋里只有一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)錢(qián)

he often could only afford to buy lunch from the illegal noodle vendors in the street

常常只能買(mǎi)得起街上非法小攤販賣(mài)的面條當(dāng)午餐