據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)，在氣候變化的極端高溫下，嬰兒會(huì)出生得更早

據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)，在氣候變化的極端高溫下，嬰兒會(huì)出生得更早

When it comes to pregnancy and babies, the closer to full-term the better. Compared to full-term pregnancies, we know that near-term babies have a higher risk of medical problems soon after birth, and lower cognitive outcomes later in childhood.

說(shuō)到懷孕和嬰兒，越接近足月越好。與足月妊娠相比，我們知道，早產(chǎn)嬰兒在出生后很快就有更高的發(fā)生醫(yī)學(xué)問(wèn)題的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，而在兒童后期的認(rèn)知結(jié)果則更低。

So, with that in mind, we have some bad news. Researchers have found that extreme heat makes babies rush to the exit sooner, leading to an average of 25,000 US infants a year born a little early due to hot weather.

所以，考慮到這一點(diǎn)，我們有一些壞消息。研究人員發(fā)現(xiàn)，極端高溫會(huì)使嬰兒更快地離開(kāi)媽媽?zhuān)瑢?dǎo)致每年平均有25000名嬰兒因天氣炎熱而提早出生。

And like nearly everything else in this world, it's only going to get worse with climate change.

就像這個(gè)世界上幾乎所有的事情一樣，氣候變化只會(huì)使情況變得更糟。

"Given recent increases in the frequency of extremely hot weather, there is a clear need to better forecast the potential magnitude of climate change's impact on infant health at the national level," the team explains in their paper.

研究小組在論文中解釋說(shuō)：“鑒于最近極端高溫天氣的頻率增加，顯然需要更好地預(yù)測(cè)氣候變化對(duì)國(guó)家一級(jí)嬰兒健康的潛在影響程度。”。

"We find that extreme heat causes an increase in deliveries on the day of exposure and on the following day and show that the additional births were accelerated by up to two weeks."

“我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，極端高溫會(huì)導(dǎo)致暴露當(dāng)天和第二天分娩量增加，并顯示額外分娩的速度加快了兩周。”

The two researchers - economists Alan Barreca from the University of California, Los Angeles and Jessamyn Schaller from Cambridge - used US birth rates and temperature data between 1969 and 1988 to get a handle on just how many extra babies were being born on hot days.

這兩位研究人員——加州大學(xué)洛杉磯分校的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家艾倫·巴雷卡和劍橋大學(xué)的杰西曼·夏勒——利用美國(guó)1969年至1988年間的出生率和氣溫?cái)?shù)據(jù)，來(lái)了解在炎熱的天氣里多生了多少嬰兒。

Although past studies have looked at this from the view of gestational length, the researchers explain this can be affected by misreporting and can lead to less accurate results.

盡管過(guò)去的研究都是從孕長(zhǎng)的角度來(lái)看待這一點(diǎn)，但研究人員解釋說(shuō)，這可能會(huì)受到誤報(bào)的影響，并可能導(dǎo)致不太準(zhǔn)確的結(jié)果。

Instead, the team looked at daily birth rates across the whole of the US, including a whopping 56 million births in their data.

相反，該研究小組研究了美國(guó)全境的每日出生率，數(shù)據(jù)中包括高達(dá)5600萬(wàn)的出生率。

"We advance the methodology of temperature–gestation studies by using data on daily birth rates, as opposed to recorded gestational lengths," the team explain.

研究小組解釋說(shuō)：“我們通過(guò)使用每日出生率的數(shù)據(jù)，而不是記錄的妊娠期長(zhǎng)度，來(lái)推進(jìn)溫度-妊娠研究的方法。”。

This works by analysing the data for a spike in births on hot days, and then checking if there is a subsequent decrease afterwards.

這項(xiàng)工作的原理是，分析高溫天出生高峰的數(shù)據(jù)，然后檢查隨后是否有下降。

"For example, in a given county of the United States, an increase in birth rates on the day of hot weather followed by a decrease two days later suggests temperature reduced gestational lengths by two days."

例如，在美國(guó)的一個(gè)縣，天氣炎熱時(shí)出生率上升，兩天后出生率下降，說(shuō)明溫度使妊娠期縮短了兩天。

They estimate that in the US, this led to 25,000 babies a year that were born a little earlier than scheduled due to heat exposure, creating a total loss of over 150,000 gestational days annually.

他們估計(jì)，在美國(guó)，這導(dǎo)致每年有25000名嬰兒因熱暴露而比預(yù)定時(shí)間稍早出生，每年造成超過(guò)150000個(gè)妊娠日的總損失。

Although a couple of days less gestation time isn't an issue for every baby, shorter gestation times have been linked to lower health and cognitive outcomes, and giving babies the best start in life means we should probably be trying to keep them a little cooler.

雖然對(duì)每個(gè)嬰兒來(lái)說(shuō)，縮短幾天的懷孕時(shí)間并不是一個(gè)問(wèn)題，但縮短懷孕時(shí)間與降低健康和認(rèn)知能力有關(guān)，給嬰兒最好的人生開(kāi)端意味著我們應(yīng)該盡量讓他們保持涼爽。

We know that our climate is heating up, and without serious action, it's going to get worse. This means more hurricanes, wildfires, and heatwaves.

我們知道我們的氣候正在變暖，如果不采取認(rèn)真的行動(dòng)，情況會(huì)變得更糟。這意味著更多的颶風(fēng)、野火和熱浪。

What this study shows is that it's not just the humans who have already been born that will be feeling the negative effects of the mercury rising.

這項(xiàng)研究表明，不僅僅是已經(jīng)出生的人類(lèi)會(huì)感受到水銀上升的負(fù)面影響。

"At the end of the century (2080–2099), we estimate that there will be approximately 253,000 additional lost days of gestation per year on average in the United States, affecting nearly 42,000 additional births," the team write.

“在本世紀(jì)末(2080—2099)，我們估計(jì)在美國(guó)平均每年會(huì)有大約253000天的妊娠損失，影響近42000的額外分娩。”研究小組寫(xiě)道。

The paper has been published in Nature Climate Change.

這篇論文發(fā)表在《自然氣候變化》雜志上。